Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is proving himself to be a force to be reckoned with in the Arkansas Democratic Senate primary. Just a month after announcing his insurgent candidacy against Sen. Blanche Lincoln, Halter is beating her badly in the fundraising race and is polling better than her against Republican opponents.
Yesterday, Halter’s campaign announced it raised more than $2 million since the campaign kicked off on March 1. That’s double the “more than $1 million” Lincoln’s campaign told the AP she raised in the past three months.
Suddenly, Lincoln’s $4 million war chest — thought my many before Halter got in to be insurmountable — doesn’t seem so intimidating. Halter’s still got a long way to go to beat her, but right now the momentum is entirely on his side.
The polls are going his way, too. Yesterday, a new Rasmussen poll showed Halter performed better than Lincoln against all the potential GOP candidates (both still trail the Republican field, but Halter is less behind).
Those numbers came after a Research 2000 poll for DailyKos showed similar results. That poll also showed Halter is gaining ground on Lincoln in the primary race, closing the gap with her to 11 points.
The TPM Poll Average for the Lincoln-Halter primary shows Lincoln in the lead by a margin of 46.0 to 30.3.
So Halter seems to have been able to overcome early concerns that the backing of national progressive and labor groups would make it hard for him to find traction in a state as red as Arkansas. But Lincoln’s made it clear she still thinks the support of big labor is a liability for Halter, and has run on the fact that many of the most progressive Democrats don’t want her to get a second term. She thinks that’s a plus in Arkansas and based on polls showing President Obama with a less than 40% approval rating in the state, she might be right. And even though Halter beat her handily in fundraising this quarter, Lincoln’s still got a bigger war chest, which gives her more resources to get her message out.
Halter’s still facing an uphill climb, and it’s not apparent yet if he’ll get the upper hand in the short time before the May 18 primary. But after yesterday’s fundraising reports, one thing is clear: Halter’s campaign is no joke, and he seems to capable of giving Lincoln a run for her money.
