Former Rep. Ed Case (D-HI), who came in third place in the recent HI-01 special election, announced over the weekend that he will not run again in the regular Democratic primary election this September — likely ceding the Dem nomination to the more liberal state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, who came in second in the special election.
“My heart tells me to stay in this fight, but my head says this has become the wrong fight,” Case in a statement. Case had been the unofficially-backed candidate of the national Democrats in that election, in which Dems suffered from a split vote of two Democrats versus one Republican, now-Rep. Charles Djou. However, many state-level Democrats never forgave him for his 2006 primary challenge against Sen. Daniel Akaka, with Akaka, Sen. Daniel Inouye and organized labor backing Hanabusa.
The seat first became open when Democratic Rep. Neil Abercrombie announced in December that he would resign, in order to focus full time on his campaign for governor. Abercrombie’s resignation took effect in February. Hawaii special elections for the House do not work like they usually do in other states, where candidates either compete in separate party primaries, or the parties select their candidates through an internal party process. Instead, a single-round election is held in which all the candidates appear together on one ballot, and whoever gets a plurality wins the election.
National Democrats unofficially supported Case, while many state-level Dems and labor backed Hanabusa. Polling had consistently shown Djou in first place, Case in second and Hanabusa in third. Hanabusa resisted pressure to drop out from national Dems, who feared that she would be a spoiler. Two weeks before the election, the DCCC officially pulled out of the race.
In a surprise result, Case came in a narrow third place in the election behind Hanabusa, after all public polling had predicted that he would come in second and Hanabusa third. So expect Hanabusa to be the favorite in the Democratic primary and probably for the general election against Djou. This Honolulu-based district is the birthplace of President Obama, and he carried it with 70% of the vote in 2008 –Â so the Dem ought to have a clear advantage in a conventional race featuring one Democrats against one Republican.
