In light of recent polls showing that over half of the country has a negative opinion of Sarah Palin, the former half-term Alaska Governor may seem like yesterday’s news. Yet based on Palin’s performance in early 2012 polling of Republican voters, it’s clear that she still remains a viable candidate for the GOP presidential nomination.
Among the Republicans believed to be mulling presidential bids, Palin routinely polls near the top of the field, both nationally and in surveys of individual states. And it’s not just an issue of name recognition; Palin holds her own against other well known Republicans, like Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.
In an ABC-Washington Post poll released this week, Palin was Republican voters’ second choice for the party nod, trailing Huckabee by only two points, well within the poll’s 5.5% margin of error. Just two months ago, PPP poll found her leading the pack at 21%, followed by the usual suspects of Huckabee (19%) and Romney (18%.) In an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll also released this week, Palin placed third, four points back of Huckabee, and five behind Romney.
[TPM Slideshow: Governor Sarah Palin: A Long Goodbye]
Palin also performs well in many statewide polls. She’s led in PPP polls of Ohio and Pennsylvania, and came within one point of edging former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty for first place in his home state.
A look at Palin’s favorability among the Republican base explains her strong showing.
In the latest national PPP poll, Palin had a higher favorability among self-described conservatives than any other GOP candidate. Sixty-six percent of conservatives said they had a favorable opinion of her, compared to 63% who said the same of Huckabee. Newt Gingrich was slightly less popular at 57%, while Romney trailed far behind at just 50%. These conservative voters are a crucial bloc in Republican primaries, as they are generally more motivated to turn out for primaries than many party regulars who vote only in November.
A recent CNN poll found Palin’s favorability among Republicans even higher, with 68% saying they viewed her favorably versus 25% who viewed her unfavorably. And in statewide polls, she trumps the other leading GOP candidates for conservative support. In 13 states PPP has polled since the midterms, Palin has scored the highest with conservatives in nine of them. In Wisconsin, her 78% favorability among conservatives was 17 points better than conservatives’ second favorite, Newt Gingrich.
Palin’s favorability ratings among the general public are so bad because the support from her base is greatly outweighed by opposition from the left. A CBS/New York Times poll released this week illuminates this sizable split. In the poll, 41% of Republicans viewing her favorably and 29% viewed her unfavorably (another 29% were undecided). But only 5% of Democrats said they viewed her favorably, compared to 81% who viewed her unfavorably, sticking Palin with an overall split of 19% favorable to 57% unfavorable.
Further, the left’s opposition to Palin is greater than their opposition to the other top GOP candidates. In the latest national PPP poll, 11% of Democrats had a favorable opinion of Palin, while 15% liked Huckabee, and 20% liked Romney. Only 4% of liberals had a positive opinion of Palin, yet Huckabee and Romney posted favorable marks from 13% and 17% of liberals.
What peeves Palin’s detractors seems to be exactly what pleases her supporters. So while the nation as a whole dislikes Palin — the current TPM Poll Average pegs her favorability at 33.8% and her unfavorability at 53.5%, with the gap widening — she’s still loved within her own party.
With a long way to go before the Iowa caucus, it’s too early to say if Palin will be a factor one year from now. And even if she does sweep to victory in the primaries, her chances of unseating Obama in the general election look pretty grim. Yet at present, the polls continue to show that she’s one of the strongest candidates for the GOP nomination.
Her critics may wish she’d just go away, but her base is still strongly behind her.
