In it, but not of it. TPM DC

Could Joe Kennedy Win The Race For Coakley?

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Newscom

According to TPMDC's Poll Tracker, polls that include Kennedy average out to show the Libertarian with just 3.6% of the vote -- and Coakley in the lead with 47.8%. Brown averages 44.2% of the vote.

The poll that has Kennedy with the highest portion, with 5%, shows Coakley with her biggest recent lead, at 8 points full points.

But when you look at the polls with only the two major candidates, Brown, on average, leads 52% to 42.5%.

Brown supporters seem to be concerned that Kennedy is Republicans' Ralph Nader. As TPMDC reported this morning, a Massachusetts tea party group is urging Kennedy to drop out of the race and endorse Brown. (But a Kennedy spokesman says," Joe feels it is important to finish what he has started.")

There are, of course, a lot of factors in this race (including turnout) and as many ways to look at the numbers. But it's one interesting take on what could happen tomorrow.