One of the key issues bedeviling House Democrats who are still on the fence about health care reform is the unpredictability of the Senate. They wonder whether the Senate will be able to pass a reconciliation bill–making needed changes to the comprehensive health care bill–that hasn’t been riddled with holes by Republican procedural bullets.
Today, Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND)–chair of the Senate Budget Committee–didn’t provide them much peace of mind.
Conrad addressed a meeting of Senate Democrats to explain the reconciliation process to them. On his way out, I and several other reporters caught up with him. I asked whether the package being assembled by House and Senate Democrats will survive the Byrd rule, which requires a reconciliation bill to amend tax or entitlement law, without increasing the deficit.
“We haven’t finished the process of going through things that are Byrd-able,” Conrad said.
“Is it a close call on some of them?” I asked.
“Oh yeah,” Conrad said.
Democrats and Republicans, he noted, will have to go over the package with the Senate parliamentarian, and make their case as to whether various measures pass the Byrd rule’s stiff test.
Now, as Paul Van de Water of the Center of Budget and Policy Priorities told me, most of the measures outlined in President Obama’s proposal should withstand the Byrd rule just fine–particularly the most significant elements, such as closing the Medicare prescription drug donut hole, and the tax changes. But some more minor ones, such as a proposal to database complaints registered against Medicare and Medicaid practitioners, might be stricken. And it’s still unclear which of the President’s provisions–or in what form–made it into the actual reconciliation bill, which has yet to be unveiled.
So it’s probably too early to worry that the reconciliation bill will come out looking like Swiss cheese. But it could have a few big holes in it.
And, of course, if the Senate makes any changes to the House’s reconciliation bill, the legislation will have to go back to the House for another vote.
