Both Parties Playing Expectations Game In NY-20

Start your day with TPM.
Sign up for the Morning Memo newsletter

It’s clear that both parties expect a close race in today’s special election for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s old House seat, because they’re both downplaying expectations — though Dems seem just a bit more confident.

The DCCC has released a detailed memo talking about all the obstacles they face here: The big GOP advantage in voter registration, Republican state House Minority Leader Jim Tedisco’s name identification against the first-time Dem candidate Scott Murphy, and the early views from pundits that they would have a tough time holding it.

On the other hand, the memo boasts of just how far Murphy has come: “After more than $2 million in negative advertising against Murphy, how did NY-20 become competitive in eight short weeks? Quite simply, he ran a better campaign.” They also credit Murphy’s support for the Obama agenda, as having taken him this far: “This campaign was a fight between Murphy’s message of bipartisan progress on the economy and Tedisco’s embrace of Republicans’ ‘just say no’ obstructionism.”

Meanwhile, House GOP Leader John Boehner spoke with reporters this morning, and commented on the race. “It is going to be a very close election, but it’s between those two candidates up in New York. I hope Jim Tedisco wins,” said Boehner, adding: “it is a Democrat seat. President Obama won this seat during the presidential election last fall.”

This is a bit different from the Boehner of a month ago — when Tedisco was ahead by 12 points in independent polling. At the time, Boehner said the race was “a giant opportunity for us to let America know that America is on our side.”

Again, this is all about both sides preparing for the possibility of defeat — and plans will change once a victor is known. If Tedisco wins, expect it to once again be “a giant opportunity for us to let America know that America is on our side,” as far as the Republicans are concerned, while the Dems will talk about the uphill climb they faced. And if Murphy wins, the Democrats will greet it as a huge affirmation of the Obama agenda, while the GOP will dismiss it as a non-event in a “Democrat seat.”

Latest DC
Comments
Masthead Masthead
Founder & Editor-in-Chief:
Executive Editor:
Managing Editor:
Associate Editor:
Editor at Large:
General Counsel:
Publisher:
Head of Product:
Director of Technology:
Associate Publisher:
Front End Developer:
Senior Designer: