A Primary Primer: A Guide To Tuesday’s Big Races

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Tomorrow is a veritable “Super Tuesday” of primaries in this non-presidential election year, with a whole host of top-tier primaries going on across the country. A total of 11 states are holding primaries: Arkansas, California, Iowa, Maine, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota and Virginia.

So let’s take a look at some of the most notable races.

AR-SEN (D): One of the biggest races tomorrow is the Democratic Senate primary runoff between incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. Lincoln has been aggressively targeted for defeat by organized labor and liberal activists, due to her opposition to the public option during the health care debates. (She did vote for the final bill that was signed into law, and which did not include a public option.) The TPM Poll Average gives Halter a lead of 49.7%-44.9%, but there is also an important caveat: Research 2000 has been the only pollster to publicly release numbers on this race during the runoff period, so we are dependent on only one source of data.

If Lincoln loses, following the defeats of Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) and Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), then 2010 will be the first time since 1980 that three Senators would have lost their nominations within a single cycle — and there are still two more primary challengers, Republican J.D. Hayworth in Arizona and Democrat Andrew Romanoff in Colorado, who have plausible chances of winning.

CA-SEN (R): Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is the establishment-backed favorite to take on Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, but before she can get to the general election she must first face off against the socially-liberal former Rep. Tom Campbell and Tea Party-backed state Rep. Chuck DeVore. Fiorina lagged behind Campbell for much of the race, but late heavy campaign spending by Fiorina — and late financial troubles for Campbell’s campaign — have put her ahead. The TPM Poll Average has Fiorina 36.9%, Campbell 23.9%, and DeVore 16.2%.

CA-GOV (R): Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman has placed a high bid of $71 million of her own money to win the Republican nomination for governor, and it’s paying off against state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. The TPM Poll Average gives Whitman 48.4%, Poizner 28.3%. The winner of the GOP primary will then take on Democratic state Attorney General Jerry Brown, who previously served as governor from 1975-1983, and ran for president three times.

CA-19 (R): Incumbent Republican Congressman George Radanovich is retiring. Four Republicans are competing to replace him: state Sen. Jeff Denham, former Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson, Fresno Councilman Larry Westerlund — and former Rep. Richard Pombo, who lost re-election in 2006 over in the neighboring 11th District against Democrat Jerry McNerney, thanks in part to his ties to Jack Abramoff.

IA-GOV (R): Former Gov. Terry Branstad, who previously held the office from 1983-1999, is heavily favored to win the Republican nomination for his old job, to go up against Democratic Gov. Chet Culver. A new Selzer/Des Moines Register poll gives Branstad 57%, Tea Party-aligned businessman Bob Vander Plaats 29%, and state Rep. Rod Roberts 8%. If the Republicans win the Iowa governorship this year, then the new GOP governor would be in an important position to possibly play kingmaker in the 2012 Iowa caucus.

NV-SEN (R): Three Republicans have been fighting a heated primary race to take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. The Tea Party favorite, ex-state Rep. Sharron Angle, has emerged as the new frontrunner thanks in large part to the many, many gaffes of the establishment-backed former state GOP chair Sue Lowden of “Chickens For Checkups” infamy. The new Mason-Dixon poll gives Angle 32%, former UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian 24%, and Lowden 23%.

NV-GOV (R): Former federal Judge Brian Sandoval is heavily favored to defeat incumbent Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons in the GOP primary. Gibbons’s term has been plagued by scandals involving a messy divorce, allegations of marital infidelity, and even an accusation of sexual assault. The TPM Poll Average has Sandoval at 47.2%, Gibbons with 29.5%, and former North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon at 5.9%.

SC-GOV (R): Four Republicans are competing to succeed term-limited and scandal-plagued GOP Gov. Mark Sanford. The most notable story recently has been the attacks on the frontrunner, state Rep. Nikki Haley, which have involved accusations of marital infidelity and even racial slurs. The last few weeks have been rough, but she still seems to be on her way to a first-place finish headed into a runoff — the new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) has Haley at 43%, Rep. Gresham Barrett at 23%, state Attorney General Henry McMaster 16%, and Lt. Gov. André Bauer at 12%.

SC-04 (R): Republican Rep. Bob Inglis is facing a stiff challenge from Spartanburg Solicitor Trey Gowdy, as a result of his many moderate heresies: He has called for action on climate change, told Tea Partiers to “turn Glenn Beck off,” and he called upon fellow South Carolina Rep. Joe Wilson to apologize for yelling “You lie” during one of President Obama’s addresses to Congress. The new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) has Gowdy at 37%, Inglis with 33%, and three other candidates with a total of 23%.

VA-05 (R): Seven Republicans are competing to take on freshman Democrat Tom Perriello, who defeated GOP Rep. Virgil Goode in an upset in 2008. State Sen. Robert Hurt is favored to win the GOP primary, against Tea Party divided right-wing opposition over his past vote for a tax increase promoted by then-Gov. Mark Warner (D).

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