In it, but not of it. TPM DC

Obamacare animosity might be enough for Republicans to retake the Senate in the fall. That has become the consensus among political strategists and analysts and a poll released Thursday is bearing it out.

The Pew Research Center poll underlined the 2014 problem for Democrats: Republicans voters were more likely to say that the health care reform law would be very important to their vote than Democrats by a 12-point margin, 64 percent to 52 percent.

The same dynamic showed up in the raw approval numbers for Obamacare: Republicans were more opposed (83 percent disapprove; 10 percent approve) than Democrats were supportive (73 percent approve; 16 percent disapprove).

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This fall, in a strange aligning of the electoral stars, Republicans will defend governorships in several key presidential swing states: Florida, Iowa, Nevada and Ohio. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could also be added to that list, which expands the proverbial map a little bit more.

One might think that, if the GOP manages to hold onto those seats, they'd be setting themselves up to take back the White House in 2016. In conversations TPM had with a few independent strategists, that conventional wisdom was the norm. It feels like it makes sense: Why wouldn't holding the state's highest office help? Especially if the governor is popular, he can show up at campaign events with the presidential candidate and mobilize the ground game.

Flip five of those six states in the GOP's favor on the 2012 map, and we'd currently be in the 15th month of the Mitt Romney administration. So Republican wins in 2014 should therefore give the party a better chance of seizing the White House two years later, right?

But it doesn't. In fact, according to the same kind of political analysis that shattered the horse-race perception of the 2012 presidential race, the opposite is true: GOP gubernatorial wins this year would actually hurt the party's chances of reclaiming the presidency in 2016.

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Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) has been called out for two misleading campaign ads that suggest as many as 300,000 Floridians have lost their health insurance coverage through Obamacare, according to The Miami Herald.

On Wednesday Scott deflected questions by reporters about the ads, produced by the Pro-Scott political committee Let’s Get to Work.

"Clearly, the ad's accurate [sic]," Scott said. He refused to elaborate.

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In most Obamacare analyses, the law's $64,000 question is whether enough healthy people are enrolling in private coverage. That metric is important for its long-term success. But the flip side of that question is: Are sick people who had been shut out of the insurance market prior to the Affordable Care Act getting the coverage they need?

A study released Wednesday looked at prescriptions issued to early Obamacare enrollees, and its findings suggest that some of those people have gotten coverage and are using it. It's not the definitive measure of how the law is doing, but it is another data point in the ongoing effort to gauge the impact of health care reform.

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The conservative website Red State is looking to heap revenge on Mozilla for the ouster of former CEO Brendan Eich.

On Tuesday night a blog post with the byline The Directors said that the site would be blocking the Mozilla Firefox browser from accessing most of the content on Firefox's front page because of "a conflict with the values of the Mozilla corporation."

Users trying to access the front page should be met with a message that read "Careful now! This website could not be displayed by Firefox because it is not consistent with Mozilla's corporate values. May we suggest visiting another site instead? Click anywhere to continue."

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A study released Tuesday blows the door wide open in the never-ending parlor game to estimate how many uninsured Americans have gotten health coverage under Obamacare, suggesting that the number might be bigger than previously thought.

But at this point, nobody is quite sure what to make of it.

RAND Corp, a non-profit think tank, released the survey. Its eye-opening finding: 7.2 million previously uninsured people have gained health coverage through their employer since mid-September. That's on top of those people who have purchased private coverage on Obamacare's insurance marketplaces or enrolled in Medicaid or young adults who signed up through their parents' plan.

Those three groups were the only people that many previous estimates of Obamacare's impact had accounted for.

In other words, if you take the earlier estimates of 8.3 million to 9.5 million uninsured people who had gotten covered by marketplace plans, Medicaid and their parents' policies -- and then add some of the millions more who RAND found had gotten insured through their employer -- then Obamacare could be responsible for reducing America's uninsured ranks much more than the earlier estimates suggested.

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For all the challenges still facing Obamacare and its supporters, conservative health wonks are increasingly cautioning Republicans that the politics of the issue have changed in the wake of the 7 million initial sign-ups.

Simply repealing the law is no longer an option, they warn, even if Republicans gain the power to do so. If they want to unwind the law, the least they'll have to do is coalesce around health care solutions of their own, lest they strip away benefits for millions of Americans without a plan of their own. And the party is far from a consensus on how they'd replace the law.

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