In it, but not of it. TPM DC

Even the Democratic candidate's pollster calls it a "long shot," but progressive groups are pouring money into the Michigan 6th District in the final weeks of the campaign, hoping to score an unexpected -- and still very unlikely -- upset of House Energy and Commerce Chairman Fred Upton (R-MI).

They have quite a climb to push Democratic candidate Paul Clements past Upton, who heads one of the more powerful committees in the House and has represented the district since 1987. Earlier this month, Clements pollster David Beattie found Upton leading, 50 percent to 35 percent. The race had narrowed ever so slightly since August, when Upton was up 57 percent to 37 percent, but it is still a huge gap to close in the last month of a campaign.

"Yeah, it's a long shot, but it's not a long shot about changing the electorate. It is about picking up voters already supporting a Democrat in the Senate race," Beattie told TPM. The district voted for President Barack Obama in 2008 and he lost by only one point in 2012. It also supports Democratic Senate candidate Gary Peters in his race, 50 percent to 38 percent, earlier this month, according to Beattie's polling.

So there are voters who will back Democrats to be won, and Upton does have some liabilities: 67 percent of voters say that he is a "typical politician" and 51 percent say that he "has become more partisan and political." Those would be the people that Clements, who is still working on his name recognition, needs to pick up.

There is just a touch of smoke -- Upton's people have reportedly been calling and berating donors to a big-money group that is pouring money into the race in a last-ditch effort to boost Clements, a Western Michigan University professor, to a shocking win over one of the longest-tenured House Republicans.

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Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) took the rare step of circulating an internal poll to reporters on Wednesday, which shows him leading by 8 points in the Kentucky Senate race.

The move came within hours of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announcing that they're going back in Kentucky with a $650,000 investment on TV. Two recent polls have found McConnell with a narrow edge over Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, but within the margin of error.

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A new TV ad by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) features testimonials from four young women who say he represents them.

"Alison Lundergan Grimes wants me to think that I’m not good enough," says one woman identified as Caroline Anderegg.

"She thinks I'll vote for the candidate who looks like me," says Ashley Burkhead.

"Rather than the one who represents me," adds Anderegg.

"As a strong Kentucky woman, I’m voting for Mitch McConnell," says Allison Pawley.

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Conservative provocateur James O'Keefe, slayer of ACORN, is at it again, this time "exposing" voter fraud in Colorado in a new video released Wednesday.

The only problem? Two days before, Mother Jones published a story quoting Colorado Democrats who said that they had turned O'Keefe and his team away in their undercover bid to show Democrats hankering to falsify some votes in a state with one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country.

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A judge upheld Puerto Rico's ban on gay marriage on Monday, becoming the first Democratic-appointed federal jurist to rule against same-sex couples' right to wed since the Supreme Court axed the Defense of Marriage Act in 2013.

Carter-appointed Judge Juan Manuel Pérez-Giménez ruled that the Windsor v. U.S. opinion did not pave the way for same-sex marriage, contradicting all but one other federal trial judge who has reviewed the issue since the landmark ruling.

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The polling looks pretty grim for Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO). If you take out explicitly Democratic-leaning polls, he hasn't led in any poll since the beginning of October. Udall's campaign believes they can beat the odds by recreating the strategy that led to an unexpected Senate victory in Colorado in 2010.

A big part of that is appealing to women. But another crucial piece is turning out Hispanic voters -- and one Latino pollster told BuzzFeed on Tuesday that there is some evidence that the polls are underestimating Hispanic support for Udall.

And now one Udall-aligned group has made a significant TV buy for Spanish-language spots with early voting underway and less than two weeks to go until Election Day.

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