In it, but not of it. TPM DC

The new poll of Pennsylvania from the GOP outfit Public Opinion Strategies, which shows former Gov. Tom Ridge swamping Pat Toomey in a Republican primary for Senate, also says that party-switcher Arlen Specter would start out with a huge lead in the Democratic primary against a potential challenge from Rep. Joe Sestak.

The numbers: Specter 57%, Sestak 20%.

Intuitively, this makes sense. Specter has much more name recognition than Sestak, having served as a Senator for nearly 30 years, compared to Sestak's only having been elected in 2006. And Specter's high-profile defection from the Republican Party has probably done him a lot of good with the state's Dem voters.

A new poll of Pennsylvania from Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies shows that former Gov. Tom Ridge (R-PA), who is reportedly considering a bid for the Senate seat now held by Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter, would currently lead conservative candidate Pat Toomey in a 60%-23% landslide for the Republican primary.

Toomey's big lead over Specter in the primary polls spurred the incumbent to switch parties, which in turn created the question of whether the Republicans were guaranteed Toomey as the nominee, or whether another Republican could take him. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT), who is also vice chair of the NRSC, has openly said Toomey cannot win, so the establishment could understandably be eager for someone else. And if Ridge gets in, they just might have it.

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Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY), who has accused his party leadership of sabotaging his fundraising and trying to force him into retirement, is now raising a possible scenario under which he might just retire -- if he can't get enough money.

"We're working like the devil to make those goals," Bunning told reporters. And if he doesn't meet his goals: "we're going to take another look at the race. I'm not going to walk into 2010 with less than $1 million when I know it's going to cost $7 million minimally, probably $10 (million), somewhere in that area, to run against the winner of the Democratic primary."

He also had an interesting reply to the accusation that he's too old: "Do you know Arlen Specter will be 80, has had four bouts with cancer and he still wants to run for the U.S. Senate? And I'm being criticized at 77 and healthy for wanting to run for the U.S. Senate by certain leadership people in my party. Give me a break."

A new Susquehanna poll suggests that Republicans could very well pick up Joe Biden's old Senate seat, if they're able to recruit Rep. Mike Castle as their candidate.

In a match-up against Democrat Beau Biden, the state attorney general and son of Joe Biden, Castle has an overwhelming lead of 55%-34%. In the internals, Castle is ahead 82%-12% among Republicans and 55%-28% with independents, and Biden the Younger only gets a 52%-36% among Democrats.

From the pollster's analysis: "The low number of undecided voters (at 8%), this far out from the 2010 elections shows that both Castle and Biden are well known to Delawareans and that even before this hypothetical matchup takes shape, Castle is standing on very solid ground should he chose to run for the Senate."

(Via Political Wire.)

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) isn't the only potential Pennsylvania Senate candidate meeting with senior labor officials. Sam Stein reports that earlier today Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA)--the former Republican who's been all-but promised an easy road to the nomination by establishment Democrats--met with SEIU Officials Anna Burger--Chair of Change to Win and Secretary-Treasurer of SEIU--and Eileen Connelly, the Executive Director of the SEIU Pennsylvania State Council.

These were Specter's natural allies when he was a pro-labor Republican, but between the threat of a primary challenge by conservative Pat Toomey, and his sudden defection into the Democratic party, Specter has doubled down on more conservative positions, saying that he no longer supports the Employee Free Choice Act and opposes a publicly funded insurance option as a component of comprehensive health reform.

Those statements and others have drawn the ire of Sestak and labor officials, who say Specter better get in line, or his road to the Democratic Senate nomination in 2010 won't be as smooth as he first expected. We'll get you more specifics about these talks as they come in.

The House plans to vote tomorrow on an anti-mortgage fraud bill, which now contains a provision that will create an independent outside commission to investigate the causes of the financial crisis.

"The American people need to understand how we got here - and lawmakers need to know how to prevent this type of economic crisis in the future," said Rep. John Larson (D-CT), who supports the move, "This commission can answer those questions."

Last week, the Senate passed their version of the same bill, which contained a similar provision, and in the coming days, the differences between the two will be resolved.

On the matter of the commission, the differences are fairly minor.

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Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY), who has accused his party's leadership of sabotaging his fundraising in order to force him into retirement, has some further tough words for his co-Senator, Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, the Louisville Courier-Journal reports.

"Good God, he wants to run everybody," Bunning told reporters on a conference call. Bunning confirmed that he encouraged Sec. of State Trey Grayson to set up an exploratory committee to run just in case Bunning himself retires. But he doesn't see a good picture for the GOP going forward. And he blames McConnell for a lot of that.

"Do you realize that under our dynamic leadership of our leader, we have gone from 55 and probably to 40 (Senate seats) in two election cycles," said Bunning, "and if the tea leaves that I read are correct, we will wind up with about 36 after this election cycle. So if leadership means anything, it means you don't lose ... approximately 19 seats in three election cycles with good leadership."

Terry McAuliffe, the former DNC chairman and colorful campaign chair for Hillary Clinton, is the frontrunner for now in the June 9 Democratic primary for governor of Virginia, a new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) indicates.

The numbers: Terry McAuliffe 30%, former state Del. Brian Moran 20%, and state Sen. Creigh Deeds at 14%, with a ±4.1% margin of error. McAuliffe is doing well among women voters, with 30% to Moran's 16% and Deeds at 13%, and among African-Americans it's McAuliffe 37%, Moran 15%, and Deeds 10%.

The pollster's analysis chalks up a big part of McAuliffe's success right now to his ability to out-raise and out-spend the competition: "This is the fourth time PPP has polled this contest and the first time one of the candidates has broken away from the pack," said PPP president Dean Debnam. "McAuliffe's resources advantage finally seems to be manifesting itself and by the time Deeds and Moran can start catching up it may be too late."

Former Florida state House Speaker Marco Rubio has now officially declared his candidacy for his state's open GOP-held Senate seat:

This sets up a likely primary pitting the conservative Rubio against the moderate Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, who is expected to get in some time soon.

In his announcement YouTube, Rubio seems to allude to an imminent Crist entry -- and in the same breath includes a mention of President Obama: "I know that there are people more famous than I who may enter this race. And I know that the President of the United States himself will travel to Florida to campaign and raise money against me."

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