In it, but not of it. TPM DC

There was a time when voters in South Carolina could be counted on to settle the Republican nomination score.

In 10 days, we'll see if they can untangle this GOP primary mess.

Between 1980 and 2008, South Carolinians accurately picked the Republican nominee every time. Then, in 2012, they selected southern son Newt Gingrich in a hot potato contest when Mitt Romney eventually became the GOP nominee.

"Right now, I just see it as really muddled," David Woodard, a political science professor and pollster based at Clemson University, said Wednesday morning as attention shifted from New Hampshire to South Carolina. "I don’t know where we are going to be. I don’t know if we will be the old state that picks the nominee or if we are going to pick the flavor of the week."

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Moments after the New Hampshire Democratic primary was called for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) by the major networks, Hillary Clinton's campaign blasted out a three-page memo penned by campaign manager Robby Mook stressing the importance of the primaries that come after the first four in February.

"The reason is simple: while important, the first four states represent just 4% of the delegates needed to secure the nomination; the 28 states that vote (or caucus) in March will award 56% of the delegates needed to win," the memo said.

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Donald Trump, the boisterous billionaire who has made restrictive immigration policies the centerpiece of his campaign, is projected to handily win the New Hampshire primary and in doing so, gave the Republican establishment a collective heart attack.

His win was called immediately after polls were closed at 8 p.m. EST.

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Researchers at UC-San Diego are working on a study on how voter ID laws affect turnout rates, and a working paper they released detailing the results thus far seems to confirm what the laws’ critics have often said.

Voter ID laws adversely affected the turnout of minorities, and particularly that of Latinos, the paper found. The study also revealed that turnout among Democrats was disproportionately affected, backing up claims of a political motivation behind the laws, which have been overwhelmingly championed by GOP legislators.

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Virginia's State Board of Elections is asking the court weighing a voting rights case being brought in the state to exclude any evidence of the state's history of racial discrimination.

The board filed a motion Monday to "exclude expert testimony and other evidence of Virginia’s history of racial discrimination," particularly anything that happened before 1965, when the federal Voting Rights Act was passed.

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Some insurance companies haven't been shy about their criticisms of Obamacare lately, giving conservatives fodder for their political arguments that the law is a failure that is destroying the entire health care market.

But there is more going on than the surface level threats to leave ACA exchanges amid accusations that they're not sustainable. These complaints are not just reflections of issues that insurers have had in adapting to the new law, but a way to influence how it evolves in the future, health care experts told TPM.

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The Illinois Board of Elections on Monday ruled against two complaints charging that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) cannot run for president because he is not a "natural born citizen."

The board ruled that Cruz "is a natural born citizen by virtue of being born in Canada to his mother who was a U.S. citizen at the time of his birth as the candidate did not have to take any steps or go through a naturalization process at some point after his birth," according to the board's meeting minutes.

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Hillary Clinton supporters spooked by her razor-thin victory in Iowa likely woke up Tuesday morning chanting one thing: “firewall.”

The belief is that once Clinton makes it past the ultra-white contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, where Sen. Bernie Sanders has a substantial lead in the polls ahead of next week's primary, she can bank on a more diverse demographic-- and particularly Latinos and African-Americans -- to bulwark her support in the states that follow.

That back-up plan will get its first true test in Nevada, which hosts a Democratic caucus Feb. 20. It is home to a Latino electorate expected to make up one-fifth of the state’s 2016 voters, along with sizable African-American and Asian-American populations.

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