With the 2014 midterm elections coming down to their last fortnight (excepting, of course, probable runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana), the spinmeisters are preparing to massively over-interpret the results. Some implications, of course, will be evident or at least plausible. If there’s a big bipartisan repudiation of governors, that would indicate the election was not, after all, a mere “referendum on Obama” but a ballot test for all incumbents sharing in responsibility for “wrong track” conditions.
If Democrats hang onto the Senate, it could be a sign that the election was not as “nationalized” as expected, or inversely, that a national GOTV effort succeeded in helping them overcome the usual “midterm falloff” problem. And if Republicans win Senate control, it will show their ability to take advantage of a very favorable landscape and adjust to unexpected challenges like viable independent candidacies in Kansas and South Dakota, or underwhelming campaigns like those of Thom Tillis and David Perdue.
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