Latest From Mark Penn
Mark Penn: "Winning Democratic primaries is not a qualification or a sign of who can win the general election. If it were, every nominee would win because every nominee wins Democratic primaries.”
--Josh Marshall
Govt: Throw Away the Key
Federal prosecutors ask judge to sentence Duke Cunningham briber Brent Wilkes to 25 years in prison.
--Josh Marshall
Souled Out
At TPM Cafe, we're wrapping up this week's Book Club on E.J. Dionne's new book.
In his final post, Dionne argues that the era of the Religious Right began in 1980 and may well have ended in 2004 and predicts that broad economic and foreign policy questions will supplant the cultural arguments of the last quarter century.
Arguing this week against the premise of Dionne's book has been Richard Parker, who, in his final post, suggests that the retrenchment Dionne describes is less fundamental and the result of recent political setbacks for the Republican Party. He compares the Religious Right to a trophy wife:
They felt neglected and abused by their Democratic first husband, and started fooling around with the rich Republican. But now they're married to the GOP, and they're surprised that the romance has gone away?
Our thanks to all the participants this week.
--David Kurtz
TPMtv: Weekend Clip Extravaganza #5!
Without a Rudy Giuliani or a Mitt Romney in the 2008 presidential race, the TPMtv Weekend Clip Extravaganza wasn't sure where to turn to for its material. Luckily, the blessed Chris Matthews answered our prayers. Plus, a special look back at the recent Capital Hill performance of Roger Clemens and his crack legal team.
Watch this episode on YouTube.
--Ben Craw
Space Oddity
One of the challenges of covering the Bush Administration these days is resisting the temptation to assume that everything they do is a stunt or a con. Sure, more often than not it is. But you have to keep your wits about you.
So when I first saw the reports yesterday that the Pentagon was planning on shooting down this failing satellite before it re-enters the atmosphere, my first reaction was, you've got to be kidding me. It didn't ease my suspicions when the first AP wire story referred to it as "the option preferred by the Bush administration."
Sure enough, it looks like this whole Star Wars operation is fishy as well, according to actual rocket scientists.
--David Kurtz
A Tortured Analysis
Yesterday, a top Justice Department official, Stephen Bradbury, gave the most detailed description ever given of the Department's legal analysis with regard to a particular interrogation technique -- waterboarding.
--David Kurtz
Calling the Bully's Bluff
A Democratic Hill aide checks in:
I can’t remember which show it was – something like the Brady Bunch – where the protagonist is being picked on by a bully and at a certain point lashes out and inadvertently bloodies the bully’s nose (and ends the bully’s tyrannical reign, etc). It seems that the House may have inadvertently done just this. In the face of an all-too-familiar pattern of administration fear mongering instead of cowedly acceding to the administration’s wishes (and tacitly reinforcing the effectiveness of the administration’s fearmongering) the House seems, through something other than a concerted response, to have stumbled into a situation where they have bloodied the administration’s nose. Short of cancelling his Africa trip and spending all of next week demagoging this issue, I don’t see how the admin keeps their credibility on this. A line has been crossed.
I'm not a pop culture aficianado, but I think it was a Brady Brunch episode. In any event, bullying is precisely what the Bush Administration has done to cow Democrats. I'm not yet convinced that we have crossed the Rubicon in terms of Democrats punching the bully in the nose. But even if we have, what took so long?
Late Update: We're having a Brady Bunch v. A Christmas Story throwdown in the emailer comments. Here's TPM Reader DM:
It’s definitely possible that The Brady Bunch had an episode where one of the boys bloodied a bully’s nose, but I’m reasonably confident that the reader is thinking about “A Christmas Story,” where Ralphie finally snaps at all the taunting he is receiving from Scut Farkus, attacks ol’ Scut and beats the crap out of him.
Later Update: The Andy Griffith Show fans are making a late push. Writes TPM Reader JR:
Sorry, but the best example in sitcom land of a bully getting a blackeye is the "Opie and the Bully" episode No. 33 of Andy of Mayberry. In fact, it is far more relevant to the current House-White House showdown than the Brady Bunch. Opie had previously been giving the bully his milk money whenever the bully demanded it. Andy tells Opie a story about how Andy had faced down his bully when he was younger and how even when the bully hit him, it didn't hurt. So, Opie refuses to give up his milk money the next day, takes a shot from the bully (which he doesn't feel) and punches out the bully, who runs home crying.
Pop Culture Arcana Update: TPM Reader SS does the honors:
In that Brady episode, Peter doesn't bloody Buddy Hinton's nose, he knocks his tooth out, giving Buddy a lisp much like the one he mocked Cindy for having.
--David Kurtz
More on Lewis
There's obviously been a lot of chatter and confusion this morning about just what Rep. John Lewis (D-GA) told the Times and whether the Times got the story wrong. Times reporter Jeff Zeleny is standing by the story and says that Lewis will cast his super delegate vote for Obama, apparently regardless of who wins the most pledged delegates, to honor the wishes of his constituents. Whatever the particulars, the gist seems to be what I characterized it as last night. This isn't mainly about an endorsement or an unendorsement. The real issue here is the Clinton camp's professed willingness to win on super delegates even if they end up with fewer pledged delegates than Obama. The Times may have gotten some nuances wrong, or perhaps Lewis's camp wasn't completely comfortable with how things looked when they saw it on paper. But the bottom line message is that he won't go along with the Clinton strategy.
--Josh Marshall
Hillary's Alamo
Three new polls of the Texas primary out today.
Two of the polls show Hillary ahead. Rasmussen comes back 54-38 for Hillary. A poll by Public Opinion Strategies/Hamilton Campaigns for the Texas Credit Union League gives Hillary a 49-41 lead.
The third poll, from ARG, which has had more than its share of what you might politely call "outliers" this primary season, puts Obama up 48-42.
--David Kurtz
What Did John Lewis Really Say?
There was a fair amount of confusion last night and this morning about what exactly Rep. John Lewis (D-GA) told the NYT about how he would cast his superdelegate vote at the Democratic Convention.
We've been trying to track it down, and Lewis' office promises a statement later today.
But the NYT reporter, Jeff Zeleny, was on CNN this morning, and explained his piece in more detail.
It comes down to this: Despite being a Hillary supporter, Lewis is not going to cast his superdelegate vote for Hillary because his district went for Obama in the Georgia primary. That's the long and short of it. Greg Sargent has the details at Election Central.
So bad news for the Hillary camp's strategy of using superdelegates to push her over the top if she's trailing in elected delegates.
--David Kurtz
Shop Talk
New evidence of crimes by former CIA No. 3 Dusty Foggo?
--David Kurtz
Media Wars, Part 342
An unrepentant Chris Matthews calls on Hillary to fire the "kneecappers" in her own press shop.
--David Kurtz
Today's Must Read
Dare we hope?
Could House Democrats finally be ignoring his fear-mongering on terrorism and national security and be standing up to the President on the surveillance bill?
Is it too much to hope for?
--David Kurtz
Number 39
Each year I allow myself this indulgence. Today's my birthday. I am turning 39. I can't tell whether that number sounds newly old to me or not. It seems a touch alien to me in a way that 37 and 38 didn't. But as Seneca says, Fate leads the willing and drags the unwilling. So I guess it doesn't really matter.
The primary season is an exciting time for any political journalist. But it's also a turbulent one running a site like this because the divisions and emotions of our readership become so intense that a lot of the acrimony inevitably laps up on to us.
But I will say that notwithstanding the real stresses of running this operation I feel a new contentment with my life. I like what I do. I'm proud of the team that puts this site together every day. I just found out that TPM won an award for its reporting on the US Attorney Purge scandal, which is nice to hear. And I've been trying to let go of things, which is contrary to my nature. But I think most of all because of my wife and my son, who in addition to being this amazing, rambunctious little person, is allowing me to fit my own life better into a context of impermanent things, invest myself in his just started as opposed to my half-run race. But beyond all those organized thoughts I find fatherhood simply a mystery, a very concrete one I find sitting in my bed in front of me each morning, but one that hits me in some suddenly brand new way several times a day and has wrapped me into a kind of love and devotion completely different from anything I've ever experienced before and something I really wasn't able to imagine or get close to beforehand.
I don't like it when people project their own experiences into a template for other peoples lives. But speaking for myself I do not think I could feel complete as a person, fully accept this boundedness as a person, or fully know what it was to be one without the turned-upside-down experience I'm having as a father.
In a few months my wife is going to give birth to our second son. So I'm looking forward to more of this.
--Josh Marshall
Won't Go There
In the thick of a campaign it is easy to overrate the importance of an endorsement or a political hit. But it is difficult to overstate the significance of John Lewis' switch from the Clinton to Obama camps because it is a devastating blow on two or three levels wrapped together in a single person. Lewis' historic and moral stature in the African-American community and in the modern Democratic party bulks very large. “In recent days, there is a sense of movement and a sense of spirit,” Lewis told the Times. “Something is happening in America, and people are prepared and ready to make that great leap.” This is a curious statement as he seems to be suggesting that his earlier endorsement of Clinton was based on his own failure to set his sights sufficiently high. What's more, the willingness of a high-profile politician not simply to endorse one candidate but to switch from one to another (at least in terms of who he believes he'll vote for as a super delegate) is a powerful sign that a tipping point is at hand.
But the most immediate and significant import is Lewis's signal that whatever the basis of his original endorsement he is unwilling to join Clinton in carving a path to the nomination through the heart of the Democratic party. The tell in Lewis's announcement is that he is not technically withdrawing his endorsement from Hillary, at least not yet. He is saying that as a super delegate (which is by virtue of being a member of Congress) he plans to vote for Obama at the convention. On Wednesday the Clinton camp started pushing hard on the idea that a delegate is a delegate and if they need to pack on super delegates to overwhelm Obama's edge with elected delegates then so be it. A win is a win is a win. I take this as Lewis saying he just won't sign on for that.
This also points to an argument I tried to make in today's episode of TPMtv. The Clinton camp's super delegate gambit is not only audacious. Far more than that it is simply unrealistic. The super delegates who are gettable for Clinton by loyalty, conviction or coercion are already got. And enough's been seen of both candidates for everyone to be more than acquainted with them. The ones who remain -- who make up roughly half the total -- are waiting to see who the winner is.
The truth is that there are over 1000 elected delegates remaining to be won. We really don't know what's going to happen yet. But if the trend continues and Obama ends the primary season with a clear majority of elected delegates, the idea that those remaining super delegates will break for the candidate who won fewer delegates, raised less money and is polling worse against the Republican nominee simply makes no sense. I'm not saying that's how it will be. But if Clinton starts winning big primaries in Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania and other states, then the whole question is moot.
But this is like the unreality that seems more and more to suffuse the Clinton campaign. I don't mean the candidate or her policies or the premises of her candidacy. I mean the cocoon of political ridiculousness that has increasingly permeated her campaign apparatus since early January.
You've seen my continuous barbs at Mark Penn, Clinton's 'chief strategist'. The last couple days have shown very clearly I think that Clinton could do nothing better for her campaign than to throttle this clown and let her get down to the business of making a case to voters for her candidacy. Perhaps good spin is an oxymoron, moral if not linguistic. But good spin is clever and forward-leaning pitches of actual realities, facts. The word in the sense we use it today actually came into being in the early 90s and to a great degree around the '92 Clinton campaign, which had such mastery in its practice. But this Clinton campaign has been doing it in a weird parody mode. Not sharp 'spins' on favorable realities, but aggressive pitches of complete nonsense. So now you have Penn successively saying caucus wins don't really count, small state wins don't really count, medium state wins don't really count, states with large African-American populations don't really count, all building up to yesterday's gem: "Could we possibly have a nominee who hasn't won any of the significant states -- outside of Illinois? That raises some serious questions about Sen. Obama."
Clinton is ultimately responsible for putting her political fate in this fool's hands. But this is a guy who has basically one big political win under his belt and whose record in seriously contested races, particularly Democratic primary races is one of almost constant defeats. Much of Clinton's current predicament stems from Penn's disastrous, glass-jaw 'inevitability' strategy and the mind-boggling decision not even to contest a slew of states where Obama racked up huge victories and many delegates.
Campaigns are about winning votes not making excuses. There are plenty of delegates still out there for Clinton to win -- over a thousand left in the remaining primaries. But her efforts are being stymied by a campaign apparatus rooted in the belief that any new reality can be overturned by pretending it away.
--Josh Marshall
Too Few Dole Parallels?
Speculation that McCain may resign his senate seat; and he leaves the door open.
--Josh Marshall
TPMtv: Campaign 2008 Roundup, #12
The knives are sharpening in the debate over the legitimacy of the super delegates. But is it really going to come to that? Don't be so sure. We explain why in today's episode of TPMtv ...
Watch this episode on YouTube.
--Josh Marshall
Hardball
It's not just about David Shuster.
Hillary's top advisers have repeatedly complained to MSNBC about Chris Matthews.
--David Kurtz
Same As It Ever Was
With torture debates and the raucous presidential primaries, folks don't think much anymore about the US Attorney scandal and the Bush administration political purge of the DOJ that led eventual to multiple resignations and the fall and disgrace of Alberto Gonzales, President Bush's Attorney and long-time legal confidant. But that's what these contempt citations are about. They're aimed at finally pushing through the stonewalling that the White House has now used for more than a year to keep the truth of what happened from becoming known. So why was David Iglesias fired? What about Carol Lam? Was her probe brushing up too close against powerful figures at the Pentagon, CIA and on Capitol Hill? What about the White House's effort to goad US Attorneys around the country to push bogus vote fraud cases to help more Republicans get elected? We still don't know the answers to those key questions. And that's mainly because the White House has been stonewalling ever since. That's what these contempt citations were and are about. And there the House Republicans are carrying the President's and Alberto Gonzales' water. I'm shocked.
--Josh Marshall
House Holds Bolten and Miers In Contempt
It is another major step in the ongoing saga of the U.S. Attorney purge scandal, which started more than a year ago.
This afternoon, the House of Representatives voted to hold White House Chief of Staff Joshua Bolten and former White House Counsel (and one-time Supreme Court nominee) Harriet Miers in contempt of Congress for their refusal to testify about the White House role in the purge.
With House Republicans congregating on the steps of the Capitol in protest, Democrats passed the resolutions 223-32.
A legal battle over executive privilege looms, one unlikely to be resolved before President Bush leaves office.
--David Kurtz
Disorder in the House
Lots of uproar today in the House.
Basically, Republicans are pissed about the contempt resolutions filed by the Democratic majority. So they have been disrupting House proceedings, including the memorial service for the late Rep. Tom Lantos.
But just now, the GOP walked out of the House and is congregating on the Capital steps in protest.
Late Update: The walkout appears to be in protest over yesterday's House vote not to extend the Protect America Act, but we're still attempting to nail that down. It would be an odd protest, since, as we reported yesterday, the right wingers in the House joined with liberal Dems to defeat the extension.
Later Update: OK, it appears that the GOP walkout was not over the extension vote yesterday, which really would have been odd. Rather, this appears to have been done in conjunction with the President's demand this morning that the House pass the Senate surveillance bill before tomorrow's expiration of the Protect America Act. The contempt resolutions against White House aides, current and former, are part of the mix, because the House is spending time on that rather, GOPers say, than on the surveillance bill.
We'll keep you posted.
Final Update: The contempt resolutions passed.
--David Kurtz
Hmmm, Should Have Thought About That Question in Advance
Here's '92 Clinton campaign manager (and superdelegate) David Wilhelm talking about his endorsement of Barack Obama on CNN this morning. But he gets tripped up on the logic of his argument a little bit. Like what happens if Hillary Clinton ends up with more pledged delegates? Will he switch to supporting her?
--Josh Marshall
Like Kryptonite
Penn's ridiculousness stymies TPM Reader RM ...
“Worse still, Mr. Penn sees the “impressionable elites” growing in number …”I’ve spent some serious time over the past 24 hours trying to come up with some snarky, clever comment to illustrate the intellectual depravity of the concept of “impressionable elites growing in number.” And I just can’t do it.
I honestly am undecided in the Dem primary race, and I’d be happy to vote for either candidate in the general, but that is straight-up Republicanism. Elitists everywhere! They’re all elitists! The millions of people voting for Obama? Millions of elitists!
It’s reminiscent of the Onion snark headline “75% of Americans now anti-American.”
As I pointed out to RM we may soon reach a point where the entire population or even a decisive majority of the population is made up of the impressionable elites.
--Josh Marshall
Not Over Yet
There was a poll a couple weeks ago showing that Texas was only a ten point race. But in two of Hillary Clinton other firewall states -- Ohio and Pennsylvania -- she's sitting on big double digit leads, according to the latest Quinnipiac poll.
--Josh Marshall
Political Genius Walking Among Us
A quote from Mark Penn that should go over extremely well: "Could we possibly have a nominee who hasn't won any of the significant states -- outside of Illinois? That raises some serious questions about Sen. Obama.”
--Josh Marshall
The Coming Fight
From The Globe ...
Hillary Clinton will take the Democratic nomination even if she does not win the popular vote, but persuades enough superdelegates to vote for her at the convention, her campaign advisers say.The New York senator, who lost three primaries Tuesday night, now lags slightly behind her rival, Illinois Senator Barack Obama, in the delegate count. She is even further behind in "pledged'' delegates, those assigned by virtue of primaries and caucuses.
But Clinton will not concede the race to Obama if he wins a greater number of pledged delegates by the end of the primary season, and will count on the 796 elected officials and party bigwigs to put her over the top, if necessary, said Clinton's communications director, Howard Wolfson.
"I want to be clear about the fact that neither campaign is in a position to win this nomination without the support of the votes of the superdelegates,'' Wolfson told reporters in a conference call.
"We don't make distinctions between delegates chosen by million of voters in a primary and those chosen between tens of thousands in caucuses,'' Wolfson said. "And we don't make distinctions when it comes to elected officials'' who vote as superdelegates at the convention.
"We are interested in acquiring delegates, period,'' he added.
--Josh Marshall
BREAKING: Senate Admonishes Larry Craig
The Senate Ethics Committee issued a public letter of admonishment today to Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID) for his conduct in connection with his arrest in the airport bathroom and his subsequent conduct.
We have the letter here and details here.
From a quick read through the letter, the Ethics Committee hits him harder than I might have expected. It's not just the arrest they tag him for but his efforts to withdraw his guilty plea. Oh, and there was the matter of him slipping the officer his Senate business card. They didn't like the appearance of that either.
--David Kurtz
Squeeze Play
More gamesmanship on telecom immunity. This time in the House. Paul Kiel has the details.
--David Kurtz
Point of Curiosity
Several readers have asked about where the total popular vote count between Obama and Hillary stands after last night.
Turns out that even giving Hillary her tallies in Michigan and Florida, Obama comes out ahead -- though just barely.
--David Kurtz
Rendell Probably Deserves a Pass
After reading his remarks in their context and watching his appearance this afternoon on MSNBC, I'd have to say that whatever trouble Hillary backer and Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell got himself into yesterday--over his reported comments that some whites in his state will not be willing to vote for a black candidate for President--was a result of his bumptious personality, and not a deliberate effort to cast doubt on Obama's electability or to otherwise inject race into the campaign:
That's my take at least. Yours?
--David Kurtz
McCain's Bind
It appears that waterboarding and Republican presidential ambitions may have collided today in the Senate.
At issue is a Democratic measure that would restrict the CIA to using those interrogation methods listed in the Army Field Manual. In other words, it would bar the CIA from employing so-called "enhanced interrogation" techniques.
Republicans were expected to use a parliamentary procedure today that would have blocked the measure by requiring a 60-vote minimum to proceed. But here's where it gets interesting.
Presumptive Republican nominee John McCain opposes waterboarding, which would have put him in the position of voting with the Democrats and against the President on this measure, perhaps giving the Dems the 60 votes necessary to proceed.
So the Republicans scuttled that planned parliamentary maneuver, and the full bill went to a vote a little while ago, barely passing, 51-45. Notably, McCain voted against the bill. One would expect that his publicly stated reason for opposing it will be something other than the anti-waterboarding provision.
The GOP thinking may be that it's better to have the bill pass and the President veto it, than have the current Republican nominee and the President so publicly at odds.
That sets up an interesting situation when and if a veto override is attempted. But with the two-thirds vote required for an override seemingly out of reach, McCain's vote may be less crucial.
--David Kurtz
Contempt Resolution Introduced In House
This afternoon, House Judiciary Committee Chair John Conyers (D-MI) introduced a criminal contempt resolution against White House chief of staff Josh Bolten and former White House counsel Harriet Miers and a resolution that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) file a civil suit against the White House.
Both resolutions arise from the U.S. Attorneys purge investigation. Paul Kiel explains.
--David Kurtz
Shuster Update
With Hillary agreeing not to back out of NBC's debate later this month, we wondered what that meant for David Shuster.
An MSNBC spokesperson tell us that Shuster remains on indefinite suspension but will not be fired and will return to the network.
--David Kurtz
TPMtv: Potomac Post Game
With Barack Obama's big wins last night in Maryland and Virginia (DC too but not many delegates there), it's looking really hard for Hillary Clinton to take back the lead among pledged (i.e., voted for delegates). We run the numbers and discuss the implications ...
Watch this episode on YouTube.
--Josh Marshall
Get What You (Over)pay For, Part 2
One of the most exciting things about this Democratic race is that it's between two genuine titans, each of whom has brought off clutch victories that propelled them back into contention. And they are each in their own ways masters of the game. Whatever the eventual outcome, when I look at the younger generation of people who make up most of the TPM staff, I wonder how much relative newcomers to the political process have a view for how rare it is to have two such evenly matched contenders go head to head so deep into the primary calendar. And yet, looking at these two worthies, for those of us who need our fill of snark and derision we have the risible Mark Penn, Hillary Clinton's chief strategist, who's probably at least responsible as anybody in the country for her current predicament -- whether that's the glass jaw 'inevitability' strategy he ginned up for her or the brilliant decision not to invest any resources in a slew of states across the country the campaign would need to compete in if Obama scored early victories.
As I noted on Monday, on the eve of what turned out to be a series of crushing defeats for his candidate in Maryland, DC and Virginia, Penn decided to cut out for an evening to discuss and sign copies of his micro-book Microtrends at the Strand Bookstore on the edge of Greenwich Village here in downtown Manhattan.
Here we join the festivities in progress, as reported by the New York Observer ...
“I was determined to take an hour out and talk about the book,” Mr. Penn told the audience, some of whom ate yogurt as they listened by the stacks of art and auction catalogs on the bookstore’s second floor. “It’s not a political book.”With that, Mr. Penn, who speaks softly and always looks a little nervous, began his presentation.
“The theory of the book is that the era of big trends is over,” he said.
He talked about how society had become “infinitely personalized” because of an increasingly evident “individualistic streak” that manifested itself in, among other things, the way “people don’t want to wear the same clothes.”
As Tina Brown, the former New Yorker editor who is working on a Hillary Clinton book, took notes to his left, Mr. Penn emphasized his distaste for the microtrend he calls “impressionable elites”—supposed leaders of society who, as he sees it, show more interest in a candidate’s personality than policies.
Mr. Obama enjoys the support of this chattering class, Mr. Penn believes, while Mrs. Clinton speaks more to working-class people who really care about policy because policy really impacts their lives. Worse still, Mr. Penn sees the “impressionable elites” growing in number, so much so that he has considered turning “that trend into an entire book someday, because it is becoming more and more evident.”
At least one attendee was skeptical. “Obama strikes me as a macrotrend, not a microtrend,” said Kevin Costa, a 48-year-old government analyst and undecided Democrat, during the question-and-answer session.
“It’s not just in the political context,” Mr. Penn said, explaining that more and more people were being persuaded by media stories and making important decisions in their life based on “hearsay.”
Asked after the event what, if anything, had gone wrong with the Clinton campaign, Mr. Penn suggested that Mr. Obama had simply turned out to be a tougher candidate than originally expected.
“After he won Iowa, he was a different candidate with a larger constituency,” said Mr. Penn. “I think that very much changed the course of the race, but I think you have seen us come back time and time again in situations where the polls and the media were ready to call it, and the voters said otherwise.”
I must say that the image of Mark Penn -- master of the suburban, poll-doctored demographic cliche -- falling back on 'working class people' against the 'impressionable elites' is enough to make all the late nights here reporting poll results at TPM HQ all worthwhile.
Viva Penn!
Late Update: TPM Reader JM was there at the Penn event and gives a dissenting (to the Observer's read) take on Penn's presentation.
--Josh Marshall
Mr. Due Process
I've got the Roger Clemens hearing going in the background, and I swear I just heard Rep. Dan Burton (R-IN) decrying "trial by media" and "circus" hearings in his defense of Clemens.
If you weren't of age during the Clinton years, then you missed Burton in his trial-by-circus-hearing heyday:
Burton regularly makes headlines with attention-getting stunts. In 1993, he fired a rifle at a "headlike thing" in his backyard in front of a homicide expert to prove his theory that Clinton advisor Vincent Foster did not commit suicide but was murdered and that his body was moved to a Virginia park. In 1995, he wrote Clinton, demanding to know whether taxpayers were footing the cost of stationery and postage for the fan club dedicated to Socks, the first cat. (They were not.)
--David Kurtz
Slippage
If you were looking for a silver lining to Hillary's losses last night, this ain't it:
Obama narrowly defeated Clinton among white voters in Virginia, 52 percent to 47 percent, while Clinton won with that group in Maryland by just 10 percentage points, according to an exit survey conducted for The Associated Press.Even white women were beginning to move toward the Illinois senator — Clinton won nearly 60 percent of their votes, a much lower percentage than in contests past. Clinton has based her candidacy in large part on her appeal to white women.
In addition to his usual strong showing among young voters, Obama was also running about even among those over 65, a group Clinton usually dominates.
--David Kurtz
Today's Must Read
With the Bush-approved surveillance bill through the Senate, attention now turns to the House, where there are already signs of moderate Democrats defecting in the face of Administration scare tactics.
--David Kurtz
A Brutal Morning After
It's going to be rough day for the Clinton campaign.
On MSNBC this morning, Joe Scarborough greeted Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson with faux congratulations on Wolfson's having kept his job in yesterday campaign staff shakeup, just the latest internal turmoil to roil the campaign.
The AP's Ron Fournier takes a no-holds-barred look at the state of the Clinton campaign, particularly what he describes as shaky loyalty to the Clintons among superdelegates.
There's no question that a series of losses--big losses--with no wins in sight for another three weeks has the Clinton campaign in a precarious situation. You can judge that simply by who's willing to say what to reporters, Fournier in this case:
Two senior Clinton advisers, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the race candidly, said the campaign feels the New York senator needs to quickly change the dynamic by forcing Obama into a poor debate performance, going negative or encouraging the media to attack Obama. They're grasping at straws, but the advisers said they can't see any other way that her campaign will be sustainable after losing 10 in a row.Clinton strategists are famous for poor-mouthing their own campaign in order to lower expectations, but these advisers have never played such games. They're legitimate, and legitimately worried.
The fear inside the Clinton camp is that Obama will win Hawaii and Wisconsin next week and head into the March 4 contests for Ohio and Texas with a 10-race winning streak. Her poll numbers will drop in Texas and Ohio, Clinton aides fear, and party leaders will start hankering for an end to the fight.
Keep in mind that Super Tuesday was only a week ago yesterday. Seems a lot longer ago, doesn't it? Obama's string of uninterrupted wins only started Saturday. But the tenor of things has already changed dramatically. We're not in the predictions business, but the Clinton campaign itself isn't expecting a victory for her for another three weeks. That is a very, very long time.
--David Kurtz
The Thinking Man's Madrassa Smear
If things continue on their current trajectory and Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee we should get used to much more of the still largely subterranean effort to scare Jews and broader portions of the electorate into believing that Obama is anti-Israel. The truth is that there's little apparent difference between Obama's position and Hillary's or, for that matter, anyone else in the mainstream of the Democratic party or most of the non-Taliban wing of Republican party. Here's a relatively mild example of the effort -- a story in the New York Sun about how Obama supporter Zbigniew Brzezinski (the article calls him an 'advisor' -- he's probably something between a supporter and advisor) is leading a delegation to Syria sponsored by the highly controversial left-wing Rand Corporation.
On another front, here is a recent post at The Politico about emails sent out by a member of Clinton's finance committee asking friends and acquaintances to "read the attached important and very disturbing article on Barack Obama." The enclosed article is this one by the neanderthal American Thinker blog by Ed Lasky.
There's much more of this going on than you realize. And it may be prepping to expand dramatically.
--Josh Marshall
Rumblings
Still early, but it's looking like two congressional incumbents from Maryland -- Al Wynn (D) and Wayne Gilchrest (R) -- may be going down to defeat in contested primaries.
--Josh Marshall
Howard's End
Howard Fineman just did a brief segment on MSNBC gaming out the delegate count and where it's likely to end up when the last primaries and caucuses are over. He said he based his comments on conversations with people in both campaigns. And the gist of it was that both sides agree that it's highly unlikely that Clinton can end up with more pledged delegates than Barack Obama. And the issue now is how close she can keep the margin.
If she can keep it within a couple dozen delegates, he argued, it would be credible to try to make up the margin with super delegates. On the other hand, if Obama's ahead by 100 or 200, the pressure against trying to make up the margin with non-elected delegates would just be too great.
Now, Fineman is something of a paragon of the mainstream media. So his comments probably raise some suspicion among some readers. But this is a pretty straightforward mathematical question. Doesn't really matter what Fineman or either campaigns say. Folks paying close attention are as likely to accurately predict the outcomes as the folks in the campaign. So is this true? Is a pledged delegate win for Clinton no longer a realistic possibility?
Share your thoughts by email or in this discussion thread we've set up at TPMCafe.
Here's Fineman ...
--Josh Marshall
Kiss of Death?
Rudy's campaign manager praises Hillary's wait for Ohio and Texas strategy ...
Mike DuHaime, a Republican consultant who managed Rudolph W. Giuliani’s campaign, said Mrs. Clinton was making the right decisions in trying to make the most of her strengths.“Clearly, she has had success in larger states and there are a whole bunch of delegates at stake on March 4,” Mr. DuHaime said. “They are not trying to figure out who can win the most states; they are trying to figure out who can win the most delegates.”
Special Thanks to TPM Reader SN for this chilling catch.
--Josh Marshall
E.J. Dionne at TPMCafe Book Club
As you're watching the returns come in, you might want to check out the conversation at TPMCafe's Book Club about E.J. Dionne's new book, Souled Out: Reclaiming Faith and Politics after the Religious Right.
In his latest post, Dionne contemplates the challenges facing Democrats:
As a practical matter, the Democrats have a more complicated task on questions of religion: theirs is simultaneously the party of secular voters, who make up an important minority of its supporters, and religious voters. The political task of creating harmony among these groups is formidable.
Lots of great folks are participating in the discussion.
--David Kurtz
Brother, Can You Spare A Dime?
From the tomorrow's Times on the Rudy's sub-prime campaign ...
A half-dozen senior officials of the Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee conferred this week on how to wind down their affairs, and at least one piece of their correspondence painted what appeared to be a bleak picture of the dormant campaign’s financial situation.“We are deeper in the hole than I thought we would be,” John Gross, the campaign’s treasurer, wrote in an e-mail message to several senior campaign aides that was obtained by The New York Times.
“Windown is likely to be less than projected, but travel expenses are higher,” Mr. Gross continued. “We cannot prefer any one creditor. We probably could make a 10% payment to all qualified creditors at this point, but probably not much more.”
--Josh Marshall
No Comment
The cable nets just caught maybe the first ten minutes of Hillary's speech tonight in El Paso, Texas. Not a single mention of the night's results. (Unclear whether she mentioned after they cut away.)
--Josh Marshall
And That's Based On?
Here's an interesting question. Both NBC and Reuters have already called DC for Obama. No returns have been reported. And no exit polls were taken. So where'd they come up with that projection exactly?
--Josh Marshall
McCain Escapes Virginia with Dignity Intact
MSNBC and Fox calling Virginia for McCain
--Josh Marshall
Snark Break
The Politico gets the announcement email heralding Rudy's return to the lecture circuit. Here's the Rude-man's page at Washington Speakers Bureau. "One of the World's Most Respected Leaders," says the headline.
I understand that Rudy will now speak on running the biggest presidential campaign train wreck in American history. That and transformative leadership.
--Josh Marshall
Seen Enough
TPM Reader JEM points out that with McCain now slightly ahead of Huckabee with 54% of precincts reporting, you have to figure it's time for the head of the Virginia GOP to call this baby for McCain.
--Josh Marshall
Fine Print
We're hearing on the cable shows that Obama won the Latino vote in Virginia 55%-45%. And clearly Obama is having a very good night. But we shouldn't necessarily read that much in to those numbers because Latinos were only 5% of the Democratic primary electorate. So the sample size is just too small to be reliable. So maybe Obama kicked butt among Latinos. But we can't know that from these numbers.
--Josh Marshall
Can't Win'em All
CNN's John King was just doing a run-down of the vote in Virginia. Short version seems to be that a lot of the votes that are in already come from the strong Huckabee areas; and McCain's strongholds in Northern Virginia are mainly still to report. So that bodes well for McCain.
Also. Special point of pride update. Our results out of Virginia are significantly ahead of those CNN is reporting on the air. So if you really want to be up-to-date, well ... you know, stay right here.
--Josh Marshall
Obama Beating Clinton and McCain?
You can see our live election results down the right in the news section. But if Virginia is any indication, Barack Obama is in line for a very strong showing tonight. Virginia was Hillary Clinton's best chance tonight and Obama seems to be dominating there.
It also seems like we may be seeing another example of synergy between the two races in Virginia. Independents and Republicans seem to have participated pretty heavily in the Democratic primary, and they went overwhelmingly for Obama. (The reverse happened in New Hampshire.) Those were voters McCain needed in the Republican primary. And without them, or without a lot of them who voted on the Democratic side, he's in a very tight race with Huckabee.
A key detail from t