So, a few observations about the Democratic debate.

First, a few months ago, I said that I didn't get what Barack Obama thought he was doing in one of the debates, that he was doing a very good job debating as the frontrunner, when in fact he was falling further and further behind Hillary Clinton. It showed tonight. There are a lot of differences between now and then. And I thought he had a good night. But tonight was an example where his style worked much better when he's on top. He parried Clinton pretty well. And I don't think she really laid a glove on him.

As I wrote earlier, I think the debate started in a pretty shambling fashion. Then it began to engage and built to a pivotal, even defining exchange on the subject of change around 9:30 PM. Obama made his case. Significantly, Edwards largely agreed with Obama to the effect of trying to close the door on Hillary's candidacy. Hillary was clearly pissed and responded with what you probably consider (depending on your perspective) either an impassioned or enraged response (perhaps both) that I think very articulately and effectively described her argument for her candidacy. I think that Hillary moment will become a Rorschach for voters around the country.

You can see it here ...

John Edwards also had, I thought, a very strong debate, particularly in the latter half of the debate. He talks a lot about feeling this fight in his blood and being a fighter. And it's important when you say things like that that it really resonates in what you say, how you act, who you seem to be. And I think it did on every count. Unfortunately for Hillary, most of the eloquence and fire was directed at her tonight.

The exchange I noted earlier from around 9:30 PM was the emotional, dramatic crux of the evening. After that a lot of the energy seemed to be released from the discussion. Not in a bad way necessarily. I thought each of them had very good moments in the second half. But that was the crux of the debate, where the key points were enunciated, and each candidate defined.

In general, I think Obama's the winner tonight. I think Hillary made her case well. I think Edwards had the best debate. But the debate can only be understood in the context of the moment. Right now, Obama's on fire. The first post-Iowa polls show him picking up a big post-caucus bump. He needed to come off well. Not make any mistakes. And not let Hillary open up any strong line of attack against him. And I think he did each one of those things. Which means he gave some reassurance to those who might be hesitating to get on the bandwagon and didn't do or allow anything to happen which significantly changes the trend of the moment, which is moving heavily in his favor.

Dem Debate reactions up momentarily.

They started out sort of shambling. They're each clearly and very understandably worn out. (Not as much Richardson. But then, hey, he's not really in the race.) Then they engaged. And I found myself being proud of them as a group, because the caliber of the discussion was so much higher than that of the Republicans. But the real engagement happened at about 9:30 on the topic of change. I noted what was said in the post below. But since then, it seems like that was the emotional crux of the debate. Like the key points were aired and the emotional tension was broken. After that the energy sort of drained out of the discussion.

When Obama started off, I thought he was a little iffy and uninspired in his response. But then the rest of the three were each worst than the last. So now I don't know what to think.

9:26 PM ... In fairness to all the candidates in both debates, the fatigue from all of them is palpable.

9:38 PM ... Okay, now we're getting somewhere. Starting at about 9:30, that was a very powerful exchange. I'm not certain who got the better of it in as much as I think each of the three hit their key points effectively. Obama's very solid. Edwards really tried to slam the door on Hillary permanently. She was ... I'm not certain what the right word is, enraged? But it was a good response. Impassioned in ways that I think will play very well with some and probably not well with others. But really captured her argument as well as, I think you have to say, her anger at being in this position.

One more post-Iowa poll in New Hampshire. This one is from Research 2000, and it shows things basically unchanged between Obama and Hillary. Each picked up a couple of points since the last poll, and Obama still leads by a point.

But big movement on the GOP side, where, according to these numbers, John McCain is soaring.

At this point it seems clear that the big take away from the Republican debate is that these are six pretty tired old guys who can barely get enthusiastic enough to answer the questions. Talk about dialing it in.

Have to say I'm disappointed in the Mittster. I had pretty high hopes. But he was being slapped around up there like the dorky kid in the High School locker room. It was sad. And Mitt's inner humorlessness did not serve him well.

8:50 PM ... Stephanopoulos agrees: Mitt blew it. Defensive, inarticulate, and just generally sad sac.

TPM Reader CS ... "Is it me, or do Thompson and McCain seem like those old guys who sit in the balcony on the Muppets? Cranky, cranky. Also, they could be compared to the old guy neighbor who exclaimed "Kid, get that ball outta my yard." There was definitely some of that. There was actually one moment where Thompson perfectly channeled Mr. Burns from the Simpsons. I'm going to have go back and grab that picture.

Really feeling like my investment of time and heart in the Mittster is not being rewarded here. I was expecting him to effectively demagogue the immigration issue versus McCain. But he can't even speak comprehensibly. I can't even tell what he's talking about. Each of them are like a matadors sticking those long sticks into the Mitt bull.

I mean, I can't take this. Romney's making Rudy look good.

8:18 PM ... I'm wondering if Rudy is realizing that his dreams of presidential glory are over and so he figures he might as well re-embrace some of the reasonable things he did as Mayor.

8:22 PM ... Huckabee's argument makes so much sense. Illegals will agree to deport themselves because if they don't and we catch them we'll deport them. Makes sense.

8:25 PM ... Finally my guy Mitt is getting his shoulder into it.

8:26 PM ... Whatever happens in this election, whoever wins, we'll all be able to agree that the complete humiliation of Fred Thompson made it all worthwhile.

8:28 PM ... This is killing me. I don't think Romney's embrace of Barack Obama as the new centerpiece of his presidential agenda just isn't going to cut it.

8:37 PM ... I think this debate format is good in as much as that it has clearly made each of the candidates forget they're involved in an election. Especially Thompson.

8:39 PM ... Rudy: Ike committed the US to putting a man on the moon; Nixon got it done.

I've been hearing McCain saying he'd 'learned his lesson' on immigration last year. And it had a real George Wallace sound to it. But listening to his statement now, it doesn't sound like he's changed that much. Good for him: but I think that's going to remain a real albatross around his neck in the coming weeks.

I was a little distracted during some of the first hour of the debate. Because of some site technical stuff. But my general impression was that it was basically a wash. McCain was decent. Romney was okay. Huckabee was decent rattling off his Huck jargon. Seemed basically like a wash to me and thus not really that clear who achieved what in terms of the vote on Tuesday.

7:20 PM ... Mittmentum!

7:25 ... I was hoping we'd get to each of the candidates scholarship on Muslim radicalism.

7:29 PM ... Good words there from Rudy about the Muslim religion and Muslims, but completely belied by his recent scary Muslims ad.

7:37 PM ... Sigh. That must have been fun for Mitt. Charlie Gibson had to be honest that Mitt's flipflopping goes without saying.

That's what we need -- more Americans buying health care outside of big risk pools.

A TPM Reader makes an interesting point: "Didn't Giuliani open a dangerous door when he said that he returned that million dollar cheque to that Saudi prince, when his security consultancy firm did business with Qatar which was overseen by Qatar's Minister of the Interior, Abdullah bin Khalifah Al Thani who apparently has ties to various terrorist groups?"

7:51 PM ... This really is the heart of Republican thinking on health care these days: ordinary folks aren't being thrifty enough and taking the cost into account enough when they decide whether to get that MRI the doctor ordered.

Romney's actually the only guy up there who has any policy on health care, any experience dealing with the actual issue. But he's not making that case very well. Especially against a stuffed shirt like Thompson.

8:00 PM ... Mitt: "Doing the work of the Free Market." For Mitt, that's like "Doing the Lord's Work."

Hillary drops a new New Hampshire mailer on Obama's abortion record.

Late Update: Reed Hundt says he doesn't think it's going to work.

Here at TPM we're getting ready for live-blogging tonight's debates. But I wanted to let you know how much your updates help us at a time like this. I just heard from one reader whose son is up in New Hampshire volunteering for one of the Democratic candidates. She gave some great detail about what the volunteers are hearing as they call former New Hampshire supporters of now-dropped-out candidates (Biden and Dodd). Others have sent in pictures and video from rallies. So many people -- either on the ground in New Hampshire or in contact with those who are, or connected in some other way -- have some hand in this battle that is unfolding. And your tips and reports and photographs and video help us pull it all together for the big picture. So please, keep it coming. We read it all. And we could not do without it. So let us know what you're hearing and seeing.

A lot is going to happen over the next three days. But perhaps one really good thing can come out of it: driving Mark Penn out of Democratic politics once and for all. I really don't know how he keeps his hooks in his clients, particularly Hillary. And he's taking a lot of richly, richly deserved grief for his late in the day trash-talking about that very accurate Des Moines Register poll.

So deserved. And for so much.

New CNN poll: Obama and Hillary all tied up in New Hampshire--33% apiece.

The recriminations begin within the Clinton campaign:

Specifically, those inside the campaign and outside advisers fault Penn for failing to see the Iowa defeat coming. They say he was assuring Clinton and her allies right up until the caucuses that they would win it. Says one: "He did not predict in any way, shape or form the tidal wave we saw." In particular, he had assured them that Clinton's support among women would carry her through. Yet she managed to win only 30% of the women's vote, while 35% of them went for Obama.

A modest rise in Iowa turnout from traditional levels — say by about 20,000 or 30,000 — might have been easy to write off as merely the result of superior tactics on the part of the well-funded Obama operation. But the fact that voters flooded the caucuses, and that Obama swept just about every demographic group, speaks to something larger that is going on in the electorate, Clinton strategists now acknowledge.

Guess there's not much argument that O'Reilly shoved Obama staffer Marvin Nicholson:

Speaking later on Fox News, O'Reilly said he tried to "gently remove" the Obama staffer so his camera could get a shot of the Illinois senator.

"We're sorry we had to have that little confrontation," O'Reilly added, "but no one on this earth is going to block a shot on The O'Reilly Factor. It is not going to happen."

M.J. Rosenberg: Because of his race, Obama offers the possibility of believing again.

Ken Baer tries to figure out: What can Hillary Clinton do to stop Barack Obama?

We're starting to get a feel now for how the Democratic race is playing out in New Hampshire after Obama's big win Thursday night in Iowa.

A second New Hampshire poll taken after the Iowa caucus is just out. The American Research Group poll, taken yesterday and today, shows Obama up by 12 over Hillary. The other purely post-Iowa poll, from Rasmussen, shows Obama up 10.

We also have two new three-day tracking polls out today, both of which just have one day of post-Iowa numbers, but already show a move toward Obama. The Zogby tracking poll still has Hillary ahead of Obama, but he cut her lead in half on the strength of Friday's numbers. The Suffolk University tracking shows Hillary's lead over Obama cut from 12 points to 7 points with the addition of the Friday numbers.

Taken together, things are looking very good for Obama. Will Hillary hit the panic button and go negative? So far, she hasn't.