The electoral map is getting awfully wiggly at the moment, with different states bouncing in and out of the Toss Up category over the course of the day. But check out what’s happening in Florida after the jump …
Not long ago Florida seemed to have moved clearly into the Romney column. It was even suggested, I think prematurely, that Obama might need to pull out of the state. But the PollTracker Average now has Obama with a .9% advantage in the state You can see the trend chart here.
Now an important detail here is that there have been a number of partisan Democratic polls released in the last week or so. That doesn’t mean they’re wrong. But partisan polls don’t always get released if they don’t show good results. So there’s reason for some caution when evaluating them.
So I just went in and filtered out the two polls from Grove Insight, sponsored by the Project for a New America, and the Mellman Group poll sponsored by Americans United for Change.
That gives Romney back a 1.1% lead. But look at Obama’s trend. If anything it’s even more marked moving up.
Of course, these are very small differences. But I don’t think you can count Obama out in Florida. And there’s no evidence here of momentum in Romney’s favor.
Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.