I don’t remember who coined it. I didn’t. I saw someone use the phrase a few days ago. But I’m starting to think “Poll Trutherism” may become a big deal post-election. The polls can’t tell us what the outcome is going to be on November 6th. But they show pretty clearly that if the election were held today Mitt Romney would lose.
Unless, that is, you think the pollsters are conspiring against Mitt Romney and the Republicans to get them so bummed out that … well, I’m not really sure what the idea would be. Because if the liberal pollsters really have conspired with the liberal media to hurt Mitt Romney the main effect would probably be to make Romney into the biggest upset winner in like forever.
But if the polls stay where they are right now and the election results mimic them I have little doubt you’re going to have a serious backdraft of Republicans who are convinced that there really was a conspiracy. And by simple inference they’ll be convinced the race was somehow stolen.
(It’s worth noting that there was a minor variant of this among Democrats in 2004, when it was held for that because the final results in Ohio didn’t match — or sufficiently diverged from — the exit polls that some funny business must have taken place.
This would bring into play the third conspiracy on top of the media and pollster conspiracy: the voter fraud conspiracy, which holds that there are vast amounts of voter impersonation fraud in the “inner city”, i.e., practiced by the black people and sundry non-white people.
I can see it coming now.
Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.