From our interview with Nate Silver:
One thing people maybe don’t grasp as a very basic thing is the more time runs off the clock, the more holding a narrow advantage is likely to hold up. If you were making an assessment of what Obama’s chances were in the spring, then you have to worry about a blowup in Europe, you have to worry about something happening in the Middle East — maybe it still will in the Middle East. Maybe instead of having merely mediocre jobs numbers, actually going back into a recession. There are all these shoes that can drop on you and they haven’t.
David Kurtz is Managing Editor and Washington Bureau Chief of Talking Points Memo where he oversees the news operations of TPM and its sister sites.