PPP just came in with results of a new poll of the Alaska Senate race and results are just deeply weird. One thing I’ll say is that this may really be the race whose outcome is more difficult to predict than any other in the country.
The big eye-popper from the poll is that McAdams, the Dem, and the guy no one has really expected to win, is dramatically more popular than either Miller or Murkowski. Not to say he has more support, he doesn’t. But his favorable numbers are much, much better than either Miller or Murkowski. Miller’s favorability rating is 36% to 59%. Basically people totally hate the guy.
Next, bizarrely, the complete implosion of Miler’s campaign seems — if this poll bears out — to be ensuring that he’ll win. He being Joe Miller. I’ll let you look at their write up to figure out how that can possibly be so. But that’s the gist. Another way to look at it is that Miller has collapsed so badly that Murkowski, rather than splitting the vote and making a McAdams win possible, now looks to him denying McAdams the victory he could win in a two person race.
The topline result is Miller 37% and Murk and McAdams both at 30%. But remember, there’s a huge wildcard in this race. Murkowski isn’t even on the ballot. She’s running as a write-in. That’s far more doable in a relatively small (pop.) state like Alaska when your name has been on the ballot in the state for decades. But it’s a enough of a wildcard to make any of the three a possible winner.
Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.