It’s interesting. Since the debacle in Florida, I’ve seen a number of reports that national Dems are increasingly worried about losing the Senate. But Nate Silver actually has the odds moving in the other direction — now down to a 10% chance of the GOP winning 51 seats. And that jibes with my infinitely less sophisticated sense of where things are.
A few days ago I said the Senate was really down to four races: Colorado, Nevada, Illinois and West Virginia.
At this point, that looks like an optimistic read for Nevada. Colorado and Illinois are still really close (and seem to be depend a great degree on whether the polls include third party candidates or not). West Virginia looks reasonably strong for the Dems, though that race has been relatively lightly polled. Giving Dems some reason for confidence is that the most recent poll is from Rasmussen and has Manchin up 3 points. PPP had him up by 6 two days earlier.
The question really just comes down to those two races on the West Coast: California and Washington state. California really seems done. Boxer is significantly ahead of Fiorina in a Democratic state and Brown looks set to crush Whitman. Nothing about the polls suggests anything but a Boxer win.
Washington state looks like it should be in the Democratic column. The TPM Poll Average gives Patty Murray a 3.1 point lead. And Nate Silver gives Murray 82.5% chance of winning. That looks pretty solid. But it’s also true that there have been a few polls recently showing the number well within the margin of error.
I think it’s pretty clear that Murray wins. But if the Dems are going to experience heartbreak on Tuesday night, I’d say this is the state I’d expect it to come from.
Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.