With some much clatter and noise I wanted to do a quick post focusing our attention on where the action seems to be for the Senate. Four races look to be realistically in doubt: Nevada, Colorado, Illinois and West Virginia. I’m still keeping a close eye on Pennsylvania and Kentucky. But Democrats need to rely on heroic assumptions to figure those as potential wins. Alaska, in theory, is in some question; but it basically seems to be whether the nominated or write-in Republican wins.
So back to our big four races. Of these, Colorado and West Virginia has been trending toward the Democrats — with Colorado still probably ever so slightly leaning GOP and the reverse for West Virginia (note that Nate Silver just nudged both slightly in the Dem direction). Nevada has been trending toward Sharron Angle but by such a narrow margin it’s definitely still in play. And finally there’s Illinois where Kirk has had a consistent but extremely narrow margin. But unlike these other states, the blueness of the state itself might be enough to overcome that very small advantage. And in Illinois, Giannoulias is actually ahead — albeit by a minuscule margin when all four candidates on the ballot are polled. (Compare this graph to this one.)
So there you go: Nevada, Colorado, West Virginia and Illinois.
