I’m actually a little surprised at the relatively optimistic notes from Democrats on my question about how people think the November election will go. Obviously all optimism is relative. At this point I would count optimism from Democrats as a number of House losses that keeps Nancy Pelosi as Speaker next year. So basically fewer than forty seats lost.
Here’s TPM Reader BC’s take …
I think the R’s will win between 25 and 35 house seats, and pick up only 2 or 3 Senate seats. The media is misunderstanding the discontent - outside of the DC press bubble, discontent is inchoate, it’s not directed at ideology — but that does not make a good media story. Obama is waiting for the financial bill passage or failure to make the pivot to the fall. If it fails, expect Obama to come out much harder than expected against the Republican party to set up the narrative for the next 2 years. If it passes, strategy is more conventional - measured claims at progress, taking one step at a time - and the energy bill will be about positioning, nothing will pass - but if played well, will solidify the narrative that the Republican obstruct because they’re apologists for the big banking and energy interests that got us into this mess.
I think this could be right on the Senate front. The GOP has fielded a really weak group of candidates. But they all have the political winds at their back. In general, I think the big political tell over the last couple months is the mounting evidence of a stalled recovery coupled with the fact that administration is basically backed into a position of immediate fiscal retrenchment which means we may be tossed back into the water. But this time with our hands tied behind our back.
