Back when Nevada Senate candidate Sue Lowden (R) first got into the chickens and health care barter business, a lot of folks said it wouldn’t damage her politically. I even heard from some people who said the focus on the story itself was a product of elitism and that ordinary people would identify with Lowden (no doubt, the view of people deeply in touch with the lives of middle class and working families who’d mainly prefer to forego health insurance and pay in livestock, which they have in abundance).
But now the verdict is in. And if this is the verdict, Sue Lowden should probably consider an appeal.
The Chicken/Barter story hit on April 12th. The two polls prior to that date — from mid-February and early April — had Lowden at 47% and 45% of the vote, respectively, in the coming GOP primary.
So that’s the pre-barter baseline — mid-40s.
Remember though that at first Lowden was just recommending barter. Livestock hadn’t come into the picture yet. (It was only people like me snarking about it.) It wasn’t until April 20th that Lowden actually played the chicken card.
So what happened after that? (See all the data here.)
Two more polls came out in late April — those had Lowden down to 41% and 38%. Then a poll came out on May 11th that had her at 30%. And the most recent poll, completed four days ago, has her down to 26%. In other words, about a 20 point drop in a month.
For the first time in months she’s no longer in the lead.
Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.