Public Policy Polling now has a late poll out on the NY-23 special election and it shows Hoffman pretty much crushing Owens. The poll was taken over the weekend. And obviously a lot happened over these couple days. But according to PPP’s Tom Jensen, the results changed very little from before Scozzafava’s suspension till after it and continued pretty much the same after she endorsed Owens today.
PPP came up with Hoffman 51%, Owens 34%, Scozzafava 13% in a three way race and Hoffman over Owens 54% to 38% in a two person race.
I think Dems can find some bit of hope in the fact that so much has happened so quickly over the last 48 hours that, even if you assume that’s an accurate reflection of voter attitudes as of today, it might not be in 36 hours. But that really seems like hope against hope.
A couple other points. In an earlier post, Jensen responded to questions about why PPP’s polls have been more favorable to the Hoffman than those of Siena and Research 2000. And the answer seems to be that PPP is looking at a much more GOP friendly electorate than are these other two polling outfits.
Siena has just announced that they will be releasing yet another poll tomorrow morning. (Remember, it was the Siena poll released Saturday morning that Scozzafava said played an important role in her decision to leave the race.) So we’ll know then whether the apparent differences in weighting and likely voter screens continues or whether Siena now too see a commanding Hoffman lead.
