Yesterday I mentioned a new Q-poll showing that while Jon Corzine is still doing awful (seldom getting over 40%), Chris Christie is falling fast enough that that could be enough for Corzine to win. Specifically, Christie probably can only win because of Corzine’s unpopularity. Because Christie is now almost as unpopular as Corzine. But third-party candidate Chris Daggett is acting as a safety valve for anti-Corzinism. And that’s pulling Christie down into Corzine territory.
Now it seems that Q-poll was no outlier. Monmouth is out with a new sounding this morning showing an almost identical result.
Monmouth: Christie 43%, Corzine 40%, Daggett 8%
Quinnipiac: Christie 43%, Corzine 39%, Daggett 12%
Just so we’re clear, I’m certainly not saying Corzine’s got the inside track. He’s still behind. And 40% is awful for an incumbent (the key tell is that he was at about the same level, when it was just two candidates, not three). But New Jersey is inherently friendly territory for Democrats and has a reputation for electing even really unpopular ones at the last moment. But Corzine’s definitely in this.
Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.