I’ve just been reading Jon Cohn’s piece in TNR about where health care reform stands post-August. And he’s surprisingly optimistic. I also think he makes a good argument. And there’s no one I can think of who I trust more when it comes to helping me understand the real world implications of health care policy issues and reforms than Cohn.
The issue Cohn zeroes in on, the person who appears to be the fulcrum of the debate right now, is Sen. Snowe (R) of Maine — the one Republican who, despite not having the same take as liberals on the ideal reform, still seems to be negotiating in good faith, i.e., unlike the gamers Enzi and Grassley, who are Senatorial Lucys trying to kill any possible legislation, she’s actually trying to pass something, even if it’s something that many would see as falling far short. This is also why I think Nelson’s statement yesterday on a ‘trigger’ is key to understanding where this is going.
As one source told Cohn, the real question on the Snowe path to a bill is whether you could end up with Snowe but without a handful of conservative Dems. That loses you 60 votes, though it does still give you a nominally bipartisan bill — which is a big deal for a lot of Senate moderates whether you think it makes any sense or not.
It’s certainly true that you could get Nelson and lose, say … Lincoln or Landrieu or even a few others. Lincoln’s the one looking at a very tough reelection fight. But I think there’s a reason why Nelson is routinely and rightly seen as the outermost rightward limit of the Democratic caucus in the senate. I suspect his apparent willingness to sign on means the rest of the Dems in the senate will too.
