There’s a lot of commotion and confusion right now on where the state of play is on health care reform, especially with the news emerging over the course of the day that the president will start a new roll out next week.
First, literalism in a situation like this will only get you so far. Sen. Blanche Lincoln appeared to say yesterday that she was ruling out a public option. Politico and others reported it that way. What she actually said was: “I would not support a solely government-funded public option. We can’t afford that.”
The only problem with that is that there’s no version of the public option that is “solely government-funded.” It’s fundamentally premium-based, with more or less subsidies either at the front end to get it started or to defray costs for middle and lower income consumers. So on the face of it, it’s a nonsensical statement — like, I’ll vote down every death panel.
What does it mean? Probably that “public option” has become toxic in Arkansas where, remember, Rush Limbaugh is more popular than President Obama. And she wants to distance herself from it as much as possible while also hinting in the details that she might not be opposed to something like it. Or maybe it’s just an answer not intended for the consumption of anyone who’s actually dealing with the policy questions and just for the death panel and socialized medicine crowd and you just drive yourself crazy trying to make sense of it in any rational terms.
One thing you can be pretty sure of though is that it doesn’t mean people are clamoring for the “public option” in Arkansas.
Then there’s President Obama. His advisors seem to be signaling that they’re done with the public option, whatever he might prefer in an ideal world. Yet, many readers note that the White House has for some time kept its own counsel on the public options or signaled that it’s not essential while also having the president say that it remains his preference.
We definitely need to wait to hear what the president has to say on Wednesday or what can be gleaned over the coming days. But my own take is that if the president really does lay down a series of requirements which doesn’t include the public option or something … well, public optionly, then it won’t happen. Perhaps he’s got some incredibly subtle plan for coaxing it from the Congress without ordering it to emerge. But critics of reform have succeeded in making the phrase extremely controversial, even if people tend to like it when what it is is actually explained to them. And it’s very hard to see how this big arc of red-state or purple state Dems goes out on a limb for this thing when their president isn’t willing to.
Perhaps the most we can say is that the entire conversation has become completely disconnected from the actual legislative and policy questions at stake. And the Dems have a better argument now that the Republicans are not interested in negotiating anything in good faith. On the other hand, the public mood, if not wholly settled, is instinctively less friendly than it was even in early July. And at a certain point, when everyone who’s needed is dumping in one way fashion or another on the public plan, you need consider the possibility that … well, it’s not looking good for the public plan.
