Looking at these latest numbers from the LA Times poll (noted below), and the context of other polls over the last few weeks, I think you have to say that none of the three competitive campaigns on the Democratic side can go into the next two weeks with any real confidence or even relative certainty of the result.

Even John Edwards, who in my own mind I'd pushed into a second tier, is by no means out of this. He's in third in Iowa. But only a statistically insignificant margin, 4 percentage points, separates him from the leader, Hillary Clinton. And what 2004 showed in spades is that an unexpected win in Iowa can rocket a candidate into the lead in New Hampshire. Possibly even more so this time since a mere five days separates the two contests.

Of course, another possibility is that they remained bunched but in an unexpected order -- Obama, Edwards, Clinton or Clinton, Edwards, Obama.

There's some thin reassurance for Hillary in the LAT sounding: among Iowans who are certain or very likely to participate in the Iowa caucuses she leads by 9 points. But if I were Hillary's field director in either of the two states that would not settle my stomach much.