Earlier today I asked how much of the current run-up in oil prices was due to White House saber-rattling on Iran. The answer seems to be some, but it's more an accelerant than a cause. The basic reasons seem to be a mix of old fashioned supply and demand on the one hand and the collapse in the value of the dollar on the other. But a little number-crunching we did today -- lining up the price of oil against some of President Bush's more incendiary comments on Iran -- showed there is at least a correlation. You see a many month trend of rising oil prices, a long updraft. But a number of the key spikes -- the sudden run-ups rather than the rising tide -- do seem to come just after President Bush's saber-rattling statements.

We'll try to put some of the data together for you in graph form tomorrow.

Also of interest on this topic is this article in Friday's Times which points to the highly salient fact that this is the first oil shock that is demand-based rather than supply-based. The simple fact is that the global energy system can't survive if people in China and India live lives like people in America and Europe. Let alone issues of sustainability and global warming -- there's just not enough oil to go around. Over time spiraling prices will lead to more investment and eventually more supply. But the experts don't seem to think supply can come close to keeping up with demand.