Max Sawicky says that he's found no book-cooking in the new Social Security Trustees report. And, Max being Max, I don't think he'd say that if it weren't true. So until I hear evidence to the contrary, I withdraw my original skepticism.

(This doesn't address the separate issue of the generally pessimistic baselines the SSA actuaries use and used in previous years.)

Max also notes that the solvency picture painted by the report isn't as clearly negative as original press reports suggested.

Late Update: Did I speak too soon? Brad DeLong brings us the latest. It's the productivity, stupid! (Actually, the vocative there applies to me and I happily leave all these complicated numbers to those who understand them better than I.)