A new Associated Press poll out today has President Bush's approval rating at 48%. He polls 46% versus 45% for John Kerry. But the real stunner is that Ralph Nader is pulling 6%.

My gut -- and a lot of other evidence -- still tells me that Nader will prove to be far less of a factor this year than he was in 2000. The scope of opposition to President Bush tells me that, as does the fact that I don't think Nader will even appear on the ballot in many states since he's not running on the Green party ticket.

Still, I find that 6% number pretty surprising, and a little worrisome.