The president says he's "troubled" by <$Ad$>the rush of wedding licenses being issued to gay couples in San Francisco. But I don't think that's really what's troubling them. I think what's really got their guts in knots are these numbers from the new CNN/USAToday/Gallup poll which shows that both John Kerry (12%) and John Edwards (10%) hold double-digit leads over the president among likely voters.

The poll actually has the president's approval number holding pretty steady at 51%. But his reelect number -- which is the more significant one heading into an election has fallen to the low 40s.

You don't judge a race when one candidate is in a trough. But this is quite a trough.