As you know, I stuck my neck out by concluding that among the entire field of weak Republican candidates and flailing campaigns, Mitt Romney stood the best chance of taking it all. Even with all the new information on the table, I'm not sure I'd change that prediction. After all, it wasn't Mitt's strength that I based that prediction on, only the universal weakness of the other candidates.

And yet, there's at least a decent chance right now that Romney's campaign could be effectively over by this day next week. The Huckabee surge seems at least to have plateaued in Iowa. And the most recent polls show McCain tied with Romney in New Hampshire.

If Romney loses Iowa after having spent $1.8 billion there and then loses in his backyard in New Hampshire he'll be in bad, bad shape. The horrid press over the following few weeks would likely kill him.

(ed.note: I had meant the reference to Mitt's $1.8 billion in spending in Iowa to be an obvious bit of sarcasm at Romney's expense. But it seems Romney's efforts to buy the Republican nomination have become so notorious and proverbial that many readers are asking if it's really true. So, no, I believe his spending is well below $1.8 billion. But he wants it really bad and there's still a day left. So who knows.)