I for one could not be happier that we finally seem to have a real race on our hands in both party nomination battles. But we're clearly in the point in the swing where coverage is wildly exaggerating the changes in the races. This evening at the gym I heard Anderson Cooper making some completely wild-eyed claim about the biggest transformation ever or some such nonsense. So I thought I'd stop over at the Intrade predictions market to see what they have to say. And they don't show much change at all.

Hillary's a bit off her high, which had her probability of winning in the low 70s. But she's now at 67.5% chance of winning. Obama has moved a lot, from 12% in early mid-October to 21.6% now. For what it's worth, as I've said before, I've always thought that Hillary bet was overpriced. The odds of her winning were never that high. A lot of dumb money out there. If I had some money to bet I might have been able to make some.

On the Republican side there's even less volatility. Rudy Giuliani is still given a 42% of winning the nomination. That's down from about 47%, with Shag Fund and probably that bad debate performance knocking a few points off him. Again, way overvalued. If you're a speculator I'd better against. That's way too high.

The most pressured option I can see, at least among people who have any chance of winning, is Romney. In just the last couple weeks he's fallen from a high of 32% to just 24% today. Even with Huckabee's surge, that doesn't make sense to me. I still think Romney's chance are better than people realize. Huckabee, of course, is the big pick up -- under 4% little more than a month ago and now at 13.4%.