Earlier I noted one key detail of the BBC/ABCNews poll of Iraqis: By a substantial majority (62%), they want Iraq to remain a unified, centralized state with its capital in Baghdad, notwithstanding the growing American consensus for some sort of soft partition. In my previous post I suggested that the numbers were likely substantially higher since I assume support for a centralized Iraq is very low among Iraqi Kurds.

That's true. But the details are still more telling. TPM Reader NB points out that the data chart at ABCNews (I was working off the one from the BBC.) And the ABC chart has the data broken down by ethnic group on page 21.

As expected, Iraqi Kurds are split about evenly between supporters of formal independence (49%) and federal state with three autonomous regions (42%). Only 9% support a unitary state.

The is the big gulf between Shia and Sunnis. Since March Iraq's Shia population has solidified in favor of a unitary state. 56% now support it as opposed to 41% in March. The key though are the Sunnis. 97% supported a unitary state in March and 97% support it today.

That's a telling number, and one that bespeaks a great deal of potential violence behind it. The group most excluded from power in Iraq today is the one most committed to an Iraq with strong centralized government -- presumably not one where they are systematically excluded from power.