As I've been going back and writing this Trump mini-book I've been talking about, I've realized the story in many ways starts or at least a part of the identification of the story starts in 2002 with the publication of a book called The Emerging Democratic Majority by John Judis (now TPM Editor-at-Large) and Ruy Teixeira. The book essentially predicted the ascendence of what we now call the Obama coalition. The book itself had something of a cursed history or cursed timing because it came out in the lead up to the 2002 mid-term where Republicans did unexpectedly well. Of course, George W. Bush was reelected two years later. That blunted a lot of the discussion of the book and its argument.
People always second-guess the hard decisions campaign committees make in the final weeks of a campaign. In most cases, they have better information than we on the outside have. But I have to wonder if the DSCC is going to regret pulling out of the Florida Senate race. The current PollTracker Average has Rubio up 4.9 percentage points. But that number is largely on the basis of one GOP poll taken last week. Take that one out and it's Rubio +2.5.
It's October 25 and the PollTracker Average stands at Clinton 50.4 percent, Trump 43.3 percent, a 7.1 percentage-point spread
The TPM Electoral Scoreboard stands at Clinton 302, Trump 195. Evan McMullin is leading in Utah, worth six electoral votes. Alaska, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina are in the Toss Up category.