09.24.2016 - 4:31 PM EDT

Most of the commentary I've seen about Monday night's debate focuses on whether Trump will show up hot and angry or be a suddenly polished and articulate Donald Trump we've never seen before. There's also a feverish debate over expectations which posits that if Trump doesn't kill anyone or find some new extremely sympathetic person to make racist comments about that he'll win - judged against extremely low expectations. Neither of these ring true to what I've seen from the two candidates over the last 18 months or what I glean from the state of the race.

For starters, Trump definitely said some crazy things in the numerous Republican debates. But fairly few of the really damaging things he said in this campaign were in the debates. They tended to be at rallies or in interviews. Put simply, Trump wasn't as crazy or unhinged in debates as people seem to remember. So if we're expecting him to come in trash talking and angry I think we may be surprised, at least at first.

09.24.2016 - 3:45 PM EDT

Here's the third episode of my new podcast with Bloomberg Businessweek's Josh Green. We talk about that Mark Penn memo from the 2008 campaign, which he was the first to report way back in 2008 and also his 2015 profile of Steve Bannon, Breitbart capo and now Trump campaign capo. Josh basically has the inside track on everything that turns out to be central about the 2016 campaign. So I talked to him about it. Hope you enjoy.

09.24.2016 - 1:50 PM EDT

With this in mind, who's gets rattled more easily, who's cooler under pressure: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?

09.23.2016 - 11:01 PM EDT

No, this isn't some highly integrated scam ad telling you to click because something's wrong with your computer. This is an actual post. (No, TPM really hasn't been hacked.) Even though you don't come to TPM for information about Mac operating systems, I wanted to share this unfortunate experience with the Mac users in our audience.

The short version is there seems to be some fairly major issue with the new Desktop/Document iCloud backup system if you try to use the backup service with more than one Mac (which is to say, more than one desktop computer as opposed to iOS device.)

Here's the longer version.

09.23.2016 - 4:52 PM EDT

So US intelligence agencies are investigating whether Carter Page, Trump Russia/Europe foreign policy advisor, has opened up backchannels to Russian officials close to Vladimir Putin.

If you'll remember, in the post I wrote in late July ("Trump & Putin. Yes, It's Really a Thing") Carter Page was #5 on the list of seven reasons why Trump and Putin was a real issue that needed more scrutiny.

09.23.2016 - 10:18 AM EDT

We're just days away from the first presidential debate and the final sprint of the 2016 campaign. There's no better time to subscribe to TPM Prime. Seriously, this is a great time to join TPM Prime. Not just because you get our digital magazine The Arch, my new podcast, fewer ads, full RSS feeds and lots of other cool stuff but because Prime is a critical part of keeping TPM thriving, growing and vital. If you feel like you need TPM then TPM definitely needs you. Join us.

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