With a tremendous advantage among non-married voters, President Barack Obama has a slim 3-point lead over Mitt Romney in a new poll from Quinnipiac University released Wednesday.
Among registered voters nationwide, Obama earns the support of 46 percent, narrowly edging Romney, who polls at 43 percent. That small margin mirrors virtually every other national poll of the 2012 presidential contest, but Quinnipiac also found a pronounced “marriage gap” between the two candidates.
Romney enjoys a 51-38 percent lead among married voters, while single voters back Obama, 54-34 percent. The gap remains when broken down by gender too. Romney leads 54-35 percent among married men and and 49-42 percent among married women. The president, meanwhile, leads 47-38 percent among single men and holds a commanding 60-31 percent advantage among single women.
From Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute:
Although much has been made about the gender gap and how President Barack Obama’s lead among women fuels his campaign, the marriage gap is actually larger and more telling. Overall, President Obama has a 20-point lead among single voters compared to Romney’s 13- point margin among married voters.
The marriage gap may be related to the different priorities and economic situations of married and single people. Married people are more likely to be older, more financially secure and more socially conservative than unmarried voters. The married column includes more Republicans and more white voters.
Married voters are more likely to focus on the economy and health care, while single voters are more focused on issues such as gay rights and reproductive issues.
The two candidates are virtually tied among independent voters, with 43 percent of the bellwether voting bloc giving the nod to Romney compared with 41 percent who prefer Obama. Romney leads 47-40 percent among all male voters, while the president holds a 51-39 percent lead among women. Black and Latino voters overwhelmingly go for Obama, but Romney claims a decisive lead among white Catholics, 53-38 percent.
The PollTracker Average currently shows an extremely tight race nationally between the president and the presumptive Republican nominee, but Obama has the upper-hand according to the TPM Electoral Scoreboard, which tracks the status of the presidential race in all 50 states.
Quinnipiac University conducted its poll July 1-8 using live phone interviews with 2,722 registered voters nationwide. The survey has a margin of error of 1.9 percent.
