Trump, Sanders Projected Winners Of New Hampshire Primary

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Donald Trump, the boisterous billionaire who has made restrictive immigration policies the centerpiece of his campaign, is projected to handily win the New Hampshire primary and in doing so is giving the Republican establishment a collective heart attack.

Editors' Blog

Oh Noes!

Rubio now possibly making a move from 5th to 4th place. Only 1.2% separating Rubes (10.4%) from Cruz (11.6%).

Trump Won Everything

One thing to note about this result is that Donald Trump got more than a win here. He got almost the best overall result he could possibly have hoped for. Second place is taken by someone who will have a very, very hard time getting traction in more conservative GOP electorates - Kasich. The race to be the anti-Trump is totally muddled and uncertain. There's a decent chance that Rubio will come in fifth after an embarrassing debate goof. I won't say his campaign is over. But this is a major, major setback that I personally doubt he can recover from. The debate goof was a thing in itself. This shows he paid a big price politically. That makes it much worse in terms of how potential supporters evaluate his strengths as a candidate.

Donald Trump needs a big field to dominate with 30% to 35%. He'll have it for a while to come. Everybody down to maybe even Christie can look at this result and say, 'Why should I get out?' Kasich isn't going to be the nominee. And there's a big anti-Trump constituency out there. So maybe it could be me? Why not? The simple truth is that Trump clobbered everyone pretty much equally. So why should anyone drop out?

Could Rubio Come in 6th?

8:28 PM: Admittedly, the title of this post is aspirational. But Christie is now within two percentage points of Marco Rubio. If Christie could move ahead, that would push Rubio into 6th place.

8:37 PM: It would be a key learning experience for American elites, center-right and center-left to watch the progress of a Bloomberg presidential campaign. CNNers talking about how amazing it would be now.

8:40 PM: Marco Rubio holding on in 5th place.

Now the Fun Starts

Basically all the networks just called the races for Trump and Sanders.

Now, though, we see the critical order of the also-rans on the Republican side.

8:09 PM: Cruz and Rubio currently battling for 4th and 5th place.

8:13 PM: Rubio now in 5th place at 10% - just behind Cruz and just ahead of Chris Christie.

8:19 PM: It seems likely that Ohio Gov John Kasich will come in second place tonight. It's enough to make you wonder, could Republicans wake up to the fact that Kasich is a fairly presentable guy from a critical swing state who has a decent amount of cross party appeal? I doubt it because this is basically an anger election on the GOP side. And that is not John Kasich.

Rubes Could Be 5th?

We currently have a largely meaningless 4% of the vote in on the GOP side. The one thing that seems pretty clear, both from the early results and the exit polls, is that Donald Trump is winning. Basically in line with all the polls. Kasich is currently in second. But there's a knockdown drag out for the next three spots - Bush, Cruz and Rubio. So it's conceivable that Rubio could end up with a very disappointing result - possibly 4th or even 5th place.

Big Big Deal

While we're waiting for tonight's results here is some incredibly important and pretty depressing information. Now that voter ID laws have been passed in the majority of US states since 2008, we now have the first study looking at a large sample of validated voting data to see whether these laws actually reduce minority voter turnout. Logic and some historical studies have made this a pretty strong assumption. But this study basically proves it. And the "success" of these laws at reducing the level of African-American and Latino voting is bigger than I imagined.

One nugget ...

In general elections, states with strict photo ID laws show a Latino turnout 10.3 points lower than in states without them. The law also affected turnout in primary elections, where Latino turnout decreased by 6.3 points and Black turnout by 1.6 points.

Here are the highlights from the study.

And Here We Go

We are here for your live New Hampshire primary results. You can see the actual results over to the right of the page. We're getting the first trickle of results in now. The early (and routinely unreliable) exit polls suggest a solid first place for Donald Trump and the remaining four candidates bunched between 10 and 15 percent. The same suggest a substantial double digit lead for Bernie Sanders, basically in line with the polls. Again, put very little stock in those numbers. But we'll be getting real counts pretty soon. Full county by county results here.

Meanwhile, in a chilling incident earlier today, Marco Rubio' New Hampshire Campaign Chairman attacked a protestor dressed as a robot. Here's the video.

Rubes' Epitaph?

Bizarre. Man who attacks anti-Rubio protestor dressed as a robot at Rubio event turns out to be Rubio's New Hampshire campaign chairman.

Video after the jump ...

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Word Of The Day, Part II

I was amused by TPM Reader ST's claim that we were exhibiting overly delicate sensibilities by treating Trump's "pussy" comments as a denigrating reference to female genitalia. But other readers are not amused at all and have emailed at length on the linguistic origins of the slur:

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Because the Presidency is Pretty Straightforward

I mentioned this McKay Coppins Buzzfeed piece in my previous post. But it's worth revisiting, even as I add the caveat that no single reported piece can be treated as definitive. Having said that, it is hard to imagine anything beside child molester or pathological liar that could be a more devastating critique of a presidential contender, especially one that is widely held among those close to Marco Rubio.

The key line is: "Though generally seen as cool-headed and quick on his feet, Rubio is known to friends, allies, and advisers for a kind of incurable anxiousness — and an occasional propensity to panic in moments of crisis, both real and imagined."

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